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MLB Predictions Today | Odds, Best Bets & Expert Picks for Pirates vs Tigers, Twins vs Dodgers, More (Wednesday, May 17)

MLB Predictions Today | Odds, Best Bets & Expert Picks for Pirates vs Tigers, Twins vs Dodgers, More (Wednesday, May 17) article feature image
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Pictured: Dustin May. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

  • With a full 15 games on the MLB slate, our experts have found a trio of best bets.
  • They have their eyes on a variety MLB bets, including an over, under and a moneyline play.
  • Continue reading for picks and analysis of the best MLB bets for Wednesday, May 17.

There are a full 15 games on the Wednesday, May 17 slate, which means there are plenty of betting opportunities to be found.

Our MLB experts have dug into a trio of games, including Pirates vs. Tigers and Twins vs. Dodgers.

They’re targeting a team total, a moneyline and a full game total on Wednesday. So, let’s quite wasting time and dig into Wednesday’s MLB best bets.


Wednesday’s MLB Best Bets

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

Game
Time
Pick
1:10 p.m. ET
Tigers Over 4 (-110)
3:10 p.m. ET
Reds Moneyline (-102)
3:10 p.m. ET
Under 9 (-115)
Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.


Pirates vs. Tigers

Wednesday, May 17
1:10 p.m. ET
MLB Network
Tigers Over 4 (-110)

By D.J. James

Rich Hill has been feasting off of good fortune and I’m backing regression to hit on Wednesday afternoon.

Hill is having an average season with a 4.35 ERA, which is pretty impressive for a 43-year-old. However, his 6.58 xERA is abysmal. The savvy veteran holds teams to weaker-than-average contact and ranks in the 60th percentile in Average Exit Velocity and the 53rd percentile in Hard Hit Rate, but he also ranks in the seventh percentile in Barrel Rate, so batters are getting to him at times.

Additionally, the Tigers have performed well against lefties. They hold a 110 wRC+ with a 13.5% strikeout rate and a .764 OPS against southpaws this season.

This is simple. The Tigers should hammer Hill, who will be grounded after mediocre results. His expected stats are atrocious and the Tigers should get to the Pirates middle relievers. Take the Detroit team total over 4 (-110), and play it to 4.5 (-125). The moneyline may also be a good bet, if you are willing to put up the juice.

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Reds vs. Rockies

Wednesday, May 17
3:10 p.m. ET
MLB.TV
Reds Moneyline (-102)

By Mike Ianniello

It’s clear both of these teams are in rebuild mode. The Reds have openly admitted that, and Colorado hasn’t done much to convince people otherwise. However, that doesn’t mean there isn’t betting value in this game.

Things have gone a bit better for Graham Ashcraft in his sophomore campaign as he’s lowered his ERA from 4.89 to 3.95 through his first eight starts of 2023. In reality, he’s been even better than that number, as one nightmare start against the White Sox ballooned his numbers. If we take out that game, he has a 2.38 ERA.

Ashcraft has really good stuff, led by his cutter. He throws it 96 mph and mixes it with a slider. He throws those two pitches 92.5% of the time. He’s also been especially effective against left-handed hitters, who are hitting just .156 against him.

Across the diamond, Austin Gomber has a dominating presence, but has progressively become less intimidating with each season. His 4.53 ERA in 2021 turned into a 5.56 ERA in 2022 and is up to 6.30 through eight starts this season. His 6.45 xERA is even more concerning.

Gomber ranks in the bottom 10% of the league in xBA, xSLG, xwOBA and xERA. His fastball has been crushed to a .398 xBA and a 59.2% hard-hit rate. He throws his fastball 43% of the time and it averages just 90.7 mph with very little movement.

Despite having the advantage of playing half their games in Colorado, the Rockies rank just 29th in wRC+ and 25th in home runs.

The Reds aren’t a very good team, but they do have a few redeeming pieces. In this particular matchup, I give the Reds a sizeable advantage in terms of starting pitchers.

Cincinnati has an advantage in the bullpen with a top-10 reliever ERA, compared to Colorado’s ‘pen, which ranks in the bottom half. The Reds likely have the edge at the plate as well as they top the Rockies in wRC+.

Home-field advantage doesn’t mean much for Colorado as the Rockies have just as many wins at Coors Field as on the road. These teams split the first two games of the series, and I think Cincinnati’s pitching advantage give Reds the edge to come away with the series win in the rubber match.

Back the Reds on Wednesday afternoon and play them to -110.

What is QuickSlip?

QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.





Twins vs. Dodgers

Wednesday, May 17
3:10 p.m. ET
MLB.TV
Under 9 (-115)

By D.J. James

Sonny Gray and the Minnesota Twins face Dustin May and the Los Angeles Dodgers in the best pitching matchup on Wednesday’s slate. Gray has headlined the Minnesota rotation with a 1.39 ERA and a sub-3.00 xERA. He sometimes allows some hard hits, but his 84th percentile rank in xBA and xSLG is indicative of continued success.

May owns a 2.68 ERA and a 3.40 xERA. Like Gray, his Average Exit Velocity and Hard Hit Rate rank in the bottom half of the league, but the other numbers are impressive. May hurls a 97 mph fastball with an xwOBA under .290. His strikeout numbers haven’t been there, but his xSLG ranks in the 76th percentile.

The kicker is the Twins and the Dodgers both have strong enough bullpens to throw on the backs of these starters.

Yes, Los Angeles has hit righties fairly well this season (118 wRC+ in May), but the Twins have struggled (98 wRC+ and a .709 OPS).

Now, that would usually yield a bet on the Dodgers, but this total is surprisingly high. Additionally, betting against Gray isn’t wise, especially this season.

This under is in play and should be in good shape as long as these starters can eliminate the possibility of long relievers getting into the game.

Even still, this under is a good bet. Take it to 8 (-120).

What is QuickSlip?

QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.




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