MLB Picks, Odds, Predictions for Diamondbacks vs Rockies (Saturday, April 29)
Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images. Pictured: Kris Bryant.
- As always, it's a busy Saturday in MLB with 16 games.
- Action Network's baseball staff has a play on the NL West battle between the Diamondbacks and Rockies.
- Continue reading for our picks and predictions for Saturday, April 29.
There’s nothing quite like weekend baseball and Saturday features 16 games. Our MLB betting experts have looked over the Saturday, April 29, schedule and found a pair of best MLB bets.
We’re targeting a pair of moneyline picks in the late afternoon and early evening. Continue reading for best bets and analysis for the Saturday MLB slate, which features Guardians vs. Red Sox and Diamondbacks vs. Rockies.
SATURDAY’S MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
|Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.|
Guardians vs. Red Sox
By Kenny Ducey
Brayan Bello hive, assemble.
The young righty is back up with the Red Sox after being sent down just five days ago, and I think he’s in a great spot on Saturday against the Guardians. Cleveland is just 24th in wRC+ over the past week of play with a very low .120 Isolated Power and a meek 7.1% walk rate, which should play into Bello’s hands.
Bello has actually pitched a lot better than his 9.82 ERA would indicate. While his hard-hit rate is a high 51.9%, nearly 60% of all contact against him has come on the ground. That would indicate that he’s doing his job as a sinkerballer, though walks continue to be a bit of an issue as he has a 9.8% rate for his career.
With Cleveland ranking 26th in hard-hit rate and 28th in barrels per plate appearance, pitching to contact should be a cinch for Bello. He also shouldn’t be plagued much by his walk issues against a team that swings this much.
Bello has made just two starts this season and his last one showed some improvement. So, perhaps it’s a bit too early to make the talented youngster an automatic fade.
On the other hand, I’ve probably been Zach Plesac’s biggest hater. After years of skating by with a mid-four ERA, the right-hander finally has a 6.50 ERA, which suits him. His strikeout rate has dropped in four straight seasons, all the way to 14.9% this year, and with a high career barrel rate, a .288 xBA this year and a .444 xSLG, that’s bad news.
Boston has looked great at the dish over the past 10 days and should mash against one of the worst pitchers in the American League. I also have enough faith in Bello to hold down his end of the bargain.
Pick: Red Sox Moneyline (-120)
Diamondbacks vs. Rockies
Noah Davis is a live, interesting arm for the Rockies, having entered the rotation a few starts ago after the injury to German Marquez.
He’s got five offerings, but relies mostly on his sinker/slider combo, throwing the former nearly half the time, which is one of the few ways a pitcher can attempt to find success while pitching his home games at Coors Field.
In his first two starts (both on the road), Davis generated ground balls two-thirds of the time. Granted, the sample size is incredibly small, but keeping the ball down in the zone, while also equipped a fair amount of swing-and-miss has me optimistic for the 26-year-old right-hander — at least for this particular start.
On the other end, Tommy Henry is one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball and isn’t likely long for the Diamondbacks’ rotation. Whether it’s Drey Jameson or Brandon Pfaadt, the Snakes are likely to go with a more appealing option before long.
Henry couldn’t find the strike zone in his 2023 debut, walking four in just 4 1/3 innings. More importantly for this handicap, he struggled to keep the ball on the ground as nine of the 17 balls in play were in the air.
The total in this game opened at 12.5, which is understandable given the run-scoring environment and the unproven pitchers, but I think a majority of the scoring is gonna come from Colorado. Davis has shown enough in his small sample that I have confidence he’ll hold Arizona at bay. Meanwhile, the Rockies’ offense should be able to tee off on Henry.
I like the full game line here which opened around a coin flip, and would bet the Rockies at -115 or better. Similarly, their F5 line can be bet at -120 or better.
Pick: Rockies Moneyline
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