MLB Odds, Picks Tuesday | Best Bets, Predictions for White Sox vs Blue Jays, Padres vs Cubs Today
Matt Thomas/San Diego Padres/Getty Images. Pictured: Blake Snell
- There are 15 games scheduled in Major League Baseball on Tuesday night.
- Of those 15 games, our MLB analysts have targeted the betting value in four of them.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of our best bets from the MLB slate on Tuesday, April 25, 2023.
It's another busy Tuesday in Major League Baseball with all 30 teams set for action under the lights.
Our analysts are focused on four of today's 15 games, including Dodgers vs. Pirates, White Sox vs. Blue Jays, Padres vs. Cubs and Yankees vs. Twins.
Here are our best bets for the MLB slate on Tuesday, April 25.
MLB Best Bets Today, April 25
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Dodgers vs. Pirates
Tuesday, April 25 6:35 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Andrew McCutchen Over 0.5 Stolen Bases (+350)  |
By Jim Turvey
Happy Steal on Syndergaard Day, everyone!
Even in less steal-happy seasons past, Noah Syndergaard has struggled mightily to limit the opposing run game, ranking last among starters in both stolen base frequency allowed, as well as opponent success rate.
On Tuesday, Syndergaard draws the Go Go Pirates, who rank second in baseball this season in terms of stolen bases.
As such, there are a few potential targets on Tuesday. Ji Hwan Bae is the Pirates' leading base stealer and is priced incredibly short at just +210 to steal a base. Ke'Bryan Hayes is listed even shorter at +205. I don't hate a play on either, but given that lofty price, along with the fact that both have struggled to get on base against right-handed pitchers, my best bet will be elsewhere.
Andrew McCutchen is sporting a .403 on-base percentage against righties this season that really doesn't have much luck baked into it. It's a legitimate revival, and bettors can get him at +350 to steal a base on Tuesday — the best implied odds edge I have among these Pirate players. I would play this to +275.
My second-favorite is Connor Joe, who is at +600 despite getting on base at a near 40 percent clip against righties as well. I would play Joe to +550.
Pick: Andrew McCutchen Over 0.5 Stolen Bases (+350)
White Sox vs. Blue Jays
Tuesday, April 25 7:07 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
F5 Over 5 (-115)  |
The White Sox's and Blue Jays' rotations are worse than I expected. Both have excellent, top-tier talent at the front, but things break down toward the back.
Today, we’re getting two of the back-end starters.
Mike Clevinger has posted a 3.26 ERA, but he’s been extremely lucky with a .281 BABIP and an 85.1% strand rate. Behind a pitiful 4.6 K-BB% rate, Clevinger’s xERA is up around 6.15.
Clevinger throws a fastball-slider mix a lot, and neither pitch is missing bats. He now ranks below the 20th percentile in whiff rate and chase rate, sinking his strikeout rate.
Meanwhile, Jose Berrios is a guy I will look to fade for the rest of the season. He actually has some promising metrics, including a career-high groundball rate (48.4%) and solid strikeout numbers (23.3%). However, his HR/FB rate is a bit low (5%, career 12.3%), indicating negative regression, and his xERA is still north of 5.00.
Berrios’ slurve has been effective in the early going, but the rest of his arsenal has faltered. I’m banking on more hitters sitting on that slurve moving forward.
So, I’m going for a full fade of these two starting pitchers and taking the F5 over.
I think we can trust the lineups. The Blue Jays boast a dominant, hard-hitting lineup, and they like hitting at home (112 wRC+). It’s harder to trust the struggling White Sox, but they posted six runs on nine hits over four innings in a game against Berrios last season, so perhaps they’ll use him to get back on track.
At anything better than over 5.5 (-110), I’ll be backing runs in the early frames.
Pick: F5 Over 5 (-115)
Padres vs. Cubs
Tuesday, April 25 7:40 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Under 7.5 (-120) |
By Kenny Ducey
Think I was going to fade Blake Snell? Think again. Not in this matchup, anyway.
While the Cubs do rank eighth in wRC+ to lefties, they’ve also struck out in 25.3% of their 237 plate appearances so far against southpaws. On top of that, their 8% walk rate within the split and 8.8% walk rate for the season are quite low. This is just what the doctor ordered for the embattled Padres lefty.
Snell has struggled for years now with hard-hit balls and barrels, and together with some troubling walk numbers that’s done well to tank his ERA. His one saving grace is his incredible ability to miss bats, and while he’s struck out just 24.4% of the batters he’s faced this season, that number would figure to make its way closer to 30%, where it’s been for the last five years.
This matchup should help those strikeout numbers return to normal Snell levels. You couldn’t ask for a better spot, against a strikeout-happy, free-swinging Cubs team.
Now, that doesn’t mean I love the Padres here, either. Not only are they 18th in wRC+ against lefties to this point and in the midst of a disappointing April at the plate, they’ve also got to face the red-hot Justin Steele. The southpaw has always been excellent at limiting home runs – the only conceivable way this Padres team could hurt him – and his hard-hit rate on the season sits at a very low 25.8%. He pitches to contact brilliantly and also has watched his strikeout rate grow for a third straight season.
Both pitchers should excel here.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-120)
Yankees vs. Twins
Tuesday, April 25 7:40 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Yankees Team Total Over 3 (-114) |
By Nick Shlain
The New York Yankees have scored only six runs over their past four games. New York’s offense doesn’t look particularly strong right now without hitters like Giancarlo Stanton, Josh Donaldson and Harrison Bader in the lineup.
Still, this slide can’t go on forever. The Yankees are certainly due to breakout of this funk, and one of my favorite bets on the slate Tuesday is for New York to go over its team total of three runs.
It’ll be a tough task for the Yankees going up against Minnesota Twins ace Joe Ryan on the road here. Ryan has a 3.24 ERA and 2.48 xERA on the season. Still, he has allowed at least three earned runs in two of his four starts this season. Ryan likely won’t throw a complete game as well and the Twins' bullpen is in the middle of the pack with a 4.23 ERA this season.
While the Yankees’ offense is undermanned due to the injuries they’re dealing with, the lineup still has some power. Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo and Franchy Cordero all have at least a .200 ISO against right-handed pitching since the start of last season.
I have the Yankees projected for four runs here representing a value and with the line at three we’ll at least get a push as long as they don’t only score two or fewer runs.
Pick: Yankees Team Total Over 3 (-114)
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