Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Tuesday, September 30.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Tuesday, I preview Tigers vs. Guardians, Cubs vs. Padres, Red Sox vs. Yankees, and Reds vs. Dodgers. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Tuesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Tuesday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Tuesday, September 30
Series Moneyline Corner
I project value on two series moneylines: Detroit over Cleveland and Chicago over San Diego.
Typically, I'd only recommend betting the Tigers to around -111 on the series line. Still, considering their significant favoritism on the road in Game 1 behind Tarik Skubal, it means I'll likely show an edge on Detroit in Game 2 or 3, if not both, and would take them up to my price target (-120).
We have the opportunity to jump on the Tigers before Skubal's start at a significant discount relative to their Game 1 price tag, with the option to hedge off and take the Guardians at north of +200 (projecting them around +240) for the series if they lose Game 1.
You can also bet Detroit to win the series 2-1 (projected +270, listed +350 at ESPNBET) down to +300. I'd imagine the Tigers are the contrarian side, following their late-season collapse, but Skubal gives them a significant lift in a short series.
I didn't expect to back the Cubs against a Padres team that seems to be built for postseason baseball. However, I do show value on the Cubs for both the series and Game 1 (which you can find below). With their Game 1 line so comparably priced to their series moneyline, I'm inclined to split a wager, at most, between the two positions. Or, I'd just bet the series game by game, and ignore the series price for now.
As I'll highlight below, the Padres have struggled with left-handed pitching, and if the Cubs are going to start Matt Boyd and Shota Imanaga consecutively in the first two games of this series, I like the Cubs to sweep 2-0 (+275 at Caesars) down to +245.
I don't project an edge on either the Dodgers' or Yankees' series lines. However, if you're looking for additional futures analysis – including Pennant and World Series projections – check out my full playoff futures preview from Monday, which includes my favorite way to bet the Dodgers from a futures perspective.
As for the Yankees, I project a slight edge in their odds to beat the Red Sox in three games (projected +209, listed +235 at Caesars), which I'm comfortable with, around +225.
Tigers vs. Guardians
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +115 | 6 -110o / -110u | -165 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -135 | 6 -110o / -110u | +140 |
Tarik Skubal vs. Gavin Williams
After taking five of six games from their division rival in September, as Detroit slid to the worst divisional collapse (from a 15.5 game lead) in MLB history, the Guardians are undoubtedly the public side of this Wild Card series.
Skubal's final two outings of a potential second consecutive Cy Young campaign (2.74 xERA, 2.67 xFIP, 27.8% K-BB%, 119 Pitching+, 2.62 botERA) both came against the Guardians. In his last start, Cleveland managed to score three runs against him in a sequence where the ball didn't leave the infield (error, an infield single, a wild pitch, a balk, and a groundout). Otherwise, the southpaw has dominated across four appearances (combined 28 IP, 2 ER, 20 H, 5 BB, 40 K).
Cleveland will counter with Gavin Williams, who broke out in the second half (3.43 xFIP, 18.4% K-BB%) following a disappointing first half (4.56 xFIP, 9.0% K-BB%).
Still, Williams outperformed his underlying indicators by a full run in both the entire season (3.08 ERA, 4.28 xERA, 4.08 xFIP) and during his second-half breakout (2.18 ERA, 3.44 xFIP). He doubled his sinker usage, and his command improved (Location+ up from 92 to 99), but I still project more than a full run gap in terms of a projected ERA differential between these pitchers.
The Guardians have the least potent offense in the American League playoffs, ranking 27th against both left- and right-handed pitching over the past 30 days, 16% to 18% below the league-average offense.
However, using a right-handed starter keeps the Tigers in their lesser split, too. Detroit has more pronounced offensive differentials, ranking as a top-four unit (118 wRC+) against lefties over the past 30 days, but 24th (89 wRC+) against righties.
Cleveland has the hottest bullpen (1st in xFIP and K-BB% since the trade deadline) despite losing their best arm (Emmanuel Clase). And as good as Detroit's bullpen was last season, they've been a massive letdown during the divisional collapse (17th xFIP, 29th in K-BB% over the same span).
I project the Tigers around -184 (listed as -180) for the first five innings (F5) of Game 1 and make them closer to -148 (listed as -159) for the whole game. As a result, I don't project value on either side of the moneyline, but would consider an F5 wager on Detroit at -170 or better.
However, you should play the Tigers series moneyline, as I outlined above, at odds of up to -120.
I set the total at 6.32 runs. However, I don't project value on the Under 6.5, given the juice at -120.
Given the nature of the three-game series without an off-day and the relative shakiness of their bullpen, I also expect A.J. Hinch and the Tigers to push Skubal as far as they can in this contest. As a result, I'd personally set Skubal Over 18.5 closer to a pick 'em price than +140, and would recommend taking Over 18.5 at +110 or better.
Picks: Tigers Series Moneyline (-110 | Bet to -120) | Tarik Skubal Over 18.5 Outs (+150 | Bet to +110)
Padres vs. Cubs
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -225 | 7 -105o / -115u | -105 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +185 | 7 -105o / -115u | -115 |
Nick Pivetta vs. Matthew Boyd
As stated earlier, while I project an edge on the Cubs' series price, I also show value on their Game 1 moneyline. I project the Cubs at -137 for Tuesday and would bet their Game 1 line to -122.
I also lean under in this game, and would note that Unders are a remarkable 15-4-2 in the Wild Card Round since 2022. My projected total is 6.55, and I would bet under 7 to -110.
Tuesday's conditions at Wrigley are pitcher-friendly (77 degrees, 7-8 mph winds straight in) but not overly so for the venue. Wrigley Field-specific wind systems have not triggered in Bet Labs as of Monday night, but the Wind Blowing In (PRO) system did, which has a lifetime record of 146-102-19 (58.9%, +12.9% ROI) at Wrigley.
Even with the weather at their backs, I'm not particularly confident in either starting pitcher.
Nick Pivetta overachieved (2.87 ERA, 3.99 xERA, 3.85 xFIP, 3.72 botERA) thanks to a career-best BABIP (.235 vs. .292 career), strand rate (78.7% vs. 72.5% career), and HR/FB ratio (9.7% vs. 14.3% career). He pitched to a 4.20 over the final two months of the season.
Matthew Boyd (3.21 ERA, 3.71 xERA, 4.22 xFIP, 3.86 botERA) also faded down the stretch (4.65 xFIP in August and September). Still, the southpaw keeps the Padres' offense in their lesser split, particularly with Ramon Laureano (139 wRC+ vs. LHP) out for the Padres. The Padres' offense ranked as a top-eight unit after the trade deadline overall, but just 16th against left-handed pitching, and that stretch primarily featured Laureano in the middle of their order.
The Cubs' offense went through a slump late in the summer, but bounced back in September (119 wRC+, 2nd only behind Seattle). They are also the far better defensive and baserunning team (2nd in Defensive Runs Saved, 4th in Outs Above Average, and 3rd in Baserunning Value), whereas the Padres rank 14th and 17th, respectively.
Lastly, the Padres may not have as significant a bullpen edge as you may anticipate. Chicago actually ranked as the No. 1 bullpen both by xFIP and K-BB% after the trade deadline, whereas the Padres finished fourth and sixth, respectively, over that span. And the Cubs recently welcomed back their closer, and most electric arm, Danny Palencia.
I like these elite bullpens to feature heavily in this game, and for both pitchers to potentially exit before completing five innings — Boyd Under 14.5 Outs (+115) and Pivetta Under 14.5 (+140) are both intriguing prop plays.
Picks: Cubs Game 1 Moneyline (-110 | Bet to -125) | Under 7 (-106 | Bet to -110) | Cubs Series Moneyline (-120 | Bet to -133) | Matthew Boyd Under 14.5 Outs (+155 | Bet to +125) | Pivetta Under 14.5 Outs (+139 | Bet to +120)
Red Sox vs. Yankees
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 7 -105o / -115u | +115 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +165 | 7 -105o / -115u | -135 |
Garrett Crochet vs. Max Fried
While the Red Sox have the best starting pitcher — and the best relief pitcher — in this short series, the Yankees have the much deeper and more dangerous lineup. Since Roman Anthony went down, Boston ranks 22nd with an 86 wRC+, while the Yankees rank 3rd (119), and finished as the No. 1 offense against southpaw pitching (121 wRC+).
Crochet (2.92 xERA, 2.64 xFIP, 25.7% K-BB%) — who cashed our regular season strikeout leader ticket — will likely finish a tough luck second to Skubal in Cy Young voting.
He faced the Yankees four times this season and posted a combined line of 27 1/3 IP, 20 H, 10 ER, 4 BB, 39 strikeouts. However, they also tagged him for five of the 24 homers he permitted this season.
Fried — who cashed our regular season wins leader ticket — has a slightly better ERA but is a slightly lesser arm (3.40 xERA, 3.41 xFIP, 17.2% K-BB%) overall.
Still, he's likelier to keep the ball in the yard (career 0.75 HR/9; 0.65 in 2025 and 0.67 in 2024) than Crochet, particularly because the Yankees have a far more powerful offense (4th vs. 23rd in ISO over the past 30 days) than the Red Sox.
I trust both bullpens. The Yankees finished 4th in xFIP and 9th in K-BB% over the final month, while the Red Sox ranked 7th and 12th, respectively, with both finishing inside the Top 10 by both Pitching+ and botERA over that span.
I project Tuesday's Game 1 total at 6.31 runs and would bet Under 7 to -115.
Pick: Under 7 (+100 | Bet to -115)
Reds vs. Dodgers
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -130 | 7 -115o / -105u | +170 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +110 | 7 -115o / -105u | -205 |
Hunter Greene vs. Blake Snell
I project the Dodgers as -181 favorites in Game 1 and set the total at 6.88 runs. As a result, I don't project value on either the side or total as of writing and would need relatively substantial market movement for something to come into range.
If you're looking for a way to bet on the Dodgers, as a reminder, check out my full playoff futures preview from Monday
While the Dodgers' offense finished four points worse (113 vs. 117 wrC+) than their championship lineup in 2024, and I anticipate that Will Smith won't return until the NLDS, I expect them to peak in October.
Mookie Betts ran a 105 wRC+ this season — compared to a career mark of 136 — following early-season health issues, but appeared back to himself in September (153 wRC+). And they only recently welcomed Max Muncy (137 wRC+) back to the fold.
The Dodgers had the best rotation in baseball after the trade deadline (1st in xFIP and K-BB%, 2nd in Pitching+), but their bullpen could be an Achilles heel (21st in xFIP, 12th in K-BB% over the same span; 18th and 13th in September) if Dave Roberts can't push the right buttons and properly consolidate his pitching staff.
Tito Francona has worked miracles from his bullpen, and they looked more dangerous late in the year, with rookie Chase Burns deployed as a late-inning weapon.
The Reds potentially have the most underrated rotation in baseball (4th in xFIP, 3rd in K-BB%, 3rd in Pitching+ post-deadline), but also have the weakest offense remaining, posting an 85 wRC+ (26th) since the deadline (18th over the past 30 days).
One thing that has stood out, especially in past postseasons, is the Dodgers' tendency to work opposing pitchers and get deep into their opponents' bullpens. They posted the sixth-best strikeout rate (20.7%) in September, and I'm interested in Greene Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115) and or Over 1.5 Walks (-150) as potential prop bets.
Additionally, this is a soft matchup for Blake Snell (Reds 26th vs. LHP; 18th over the L30 days), who averaged a career-high 5.55 innings per start this season. And given the Dodgers' bullpen concerns, I'm inclined to believe that Snell records an out in the sixth inning — a feat he has achieved in six of his past seven starts — provided he hasn't thrown more than 95 pitches through five. Poke Snell's Over 15.5 Outs at plus money (+120 at Caesars).
Picks: Blake Snell Over 15.5 Outs (+120 | Play to +110) | Hunter Greene Over 1.5 Walks (-129 | Play to -150) | Hunter Greene Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+117 | Play to +100)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Tuesday, September 30
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Game 1 Sides and Totals
- Chicago Cubs (-110, 0.5u) at ESPN BET; bet to -125
- Padres/Cubs Under 7 (-105, 0.5u) at FanDuel; bet to -110
- Red Sox/Yankees Under 7 (+100, 1u) at BallyBet; bet to -115
Game 1 Player Props
- Blake Snell Over 15.5 Outs (+120, 0.15u) at Caesars; bet to +100
- Hunter Greene, Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120 0.1u) at Fanatics; bet to +100
- Hunter Greene, Over 1.5 Walks (-129, 0.1u) at Draftkings; bet to -150
- Matthew Boyd Under 14.5 Outs (+155, 0.1u) at Caesars; bet to +125)
- Nick Pivetta Under 14.5 Outs (+139, 0.1u) at DraftKings; bet to +120
- Tarik Skubal, Over 18.5 Outs Recorded (+150, 0.2u) at DraftKings; bet to +110
Series Futures and Props
- Chicago Cubs Series Moneyline (-120, 0.5u) at Caesars; bet to -133
- Detroit Tigers Series Moneyline (-110, 1u) at Caesars; bet to -120
