Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Wednesday, May 28.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Wednesday, I preview Twins vs Rays, Giants vs Tigers, and Blue Jays vs Rangers. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Wednesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Wednesday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Expert Picks — Wednesday, May 28
Twins vs. Rays
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -110 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -110 |
RHP Pablo Lopez (MIN) vs. RHP Drew Rasmussen (TBR)
I project the Rays ML at -135 for this Wednesday afternoon affair.
The weather is projected to be fairly hitter-friendly, with 90-degree temps (feels like 97) and seven MPH winds blowing out toward left field. Despite increasing the park factor, I remain aligned with the market on the total, projecting around 8.1 runs.
Rays starting pitcher Drew Rasmussen (3.32 xERA, 15.3% K-BB, 109 Pitching+, 2.90 botERA) isn’t that homer-prone (0.72 HR/9 allowed career) because of his high ground-ball rate (51.4% career).
Conversely, Twins starting pitcher Pablo Lopez (2.83 xERA, 22.2% K-BB, 96 Stuff+, 110 Pitching+, 2.90 botERA) is more homer-prone (1.07 HR/9 allowed career) because he’s more of a fly-ball pitcher (39.3% ground-ball rate career).
The Twins have the bullpen edge by xFIP and strikeout minus walk rate, but the Rays grade out as a top-five bullpen by the advanced pitching model metrics. Additionally, Minnesota’s relief unit is a tad extended, with Louie Varland, Griffen Jax and Jhoan Duran all having worked at least three times in the past five days.
Tampa’s lineup has been slightly better than Minnesota’s, especially since Josh Lowe returned from the IL on May 15. Additionally, the Rays are the better defensive and baserunning team, especially with Byron Buxton on the IL.
Pick: Rays ML (-110 | Play to -125)
Giants vs. Tigers
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 8 -105o / -115u | -105 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 8 -105o / -115u | -115 |
LHP Landen Roupp (SFG) vs. RHP Jackson Jobe (DET)
Comerica typically plays like a pitcher’s park, with a run-scoring environment around 5% below the league average. Behind lackluster hitting weather (59 degrees, drizzling, 10 MPH winds blowing in from left field), I lowered my projected total from 7.70 on a weather-neutral day to 7.13 runs for Wednesday.
Giants starting pitcher Landen Roupp is an above-average starting pitcher, and he’s pitching to projections (3.63 ERA, 3.57 xERA, 13.7% K-BB, 107 Pitching+, 3.75 botERA). He has a big curveball (40% usage, 106 Stuff+, .268 xwOBA allowed), although he’s been throwing more changeups to lefties, helping his platoon splits.
Tigers starting pitcher Jackson Jobe is a Unicorn. He has five average or plus pitches in his arsenal (114 Stuff+ slider, 100 Stuff+ fastball, 107 Stuff+ changeup, 111 Stuff+ sinker, 107 Stuff+ curveball). He’s tough to square up, but he tends to struggle with command and control (96 Location+, 12.3% walk rate).
Ultimately, Jobe boasts just a 4.47 xERA, but his 3.80 botERA indicates more upside, especially with his stuff. The Tigers have already developed and optimized Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize, and multiple bullpen arms internally, so I have high hopes for young Jobe.
Detroit is beginning to cool off defensively, posting a 93 wRC+ in May after a 107 wRC+ in April. San Francisco’s lineup has gone cold as well, posting a 91 wRC+ over the past month.
These are two competent bullpens, with the Giants ranking fifth among MLB teams in reliever xFIP while the Tigers rank 13th. Detroit closer Will Vest has worked in back-to-back days, but the rest of the unit is relatively fresh. Additionally, both squads have Thursday off, allowing them to deploy as many relievers as necessary on Wednesday.
Pick: Under 8 (-112 | Play to 7.5 -105)
Blue Jays vs. Rangers
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -165 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +120 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -145 |
RHP Paxton Schultz (TOR) vs. RHP Tyler Mahle (TEX)
Corey Seager returns from the IL for Texas on Wednesday, but I still project the Blue Jays ML at +121.
Toronto is throwing a bullpen game, starting Paxton Schultz (3.64 xERA across four appearances) even after he threw 46 pitches across three innings on Sunday.
Eric Lauer (4.10 xERA, 17% K-BB across five appearances) is available as a bulk guy on regular rest — he’s optimized his arsenal by relying more on his slider, curveball and changeup, instead of his cutter. The slider is his only plus offering (101 Stuff+), and he’s finally throwing it more (21.2% usage in his last start, second to his fastball).
The Blue Jays have the bullpen edge over Texas on paper, and their higher-leverage arms are better rested. That said, the Rangers have Thursday off, while the Blue Jays don’t.
Rangers starting pitcher Tyler Mahle has been a total luckbox this year (1.80 ERA, 3.85 xERA, 4.16 xFIP, 9.4% K-BB, 25.1% CSW) behind a low BABIP (.231) and high strand rate (84.5%). He has a good fastball (100 Stuff+) and commands his arsenal well, but all his secondaries grade out poorly.
The Jays are due for some positive regression after some unlucky results on Monday and Tuesday, hitting 1-for-22 with RISP over the first two games of this road series.
Pick: Blue Jays ML (+142 | Play to +130)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, May 28
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- Rays ML (-110 | Play to -125)
- Blue Jays ML (+142 | Play to +130)
- Giants vs Tigers Under 8 (-112 | Play to 7.5 -105)
- White Sox vs. Mets Under 8 (-115 | Play to 7.5 -110)
