MLB PrizePicks Props, Plays: 5 Picks, Including Mike Trout & Christian Yelich (Saturday, September 17)
Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images. Pictured: Mike Trout.
Saturday’s MLB slate features 17 games, which means there are plenty of player props to take advantage of across the board.
Player props have become among the most popular bets in the industry, but while the amount of states with legalized gambling is growing, some may feel left out.
With PrizePicks, you get the opportunity to essentially parlay game prop over/unders with cash payouts depending on how many you get correct on that day’s slate.
Therefore, let’s take a look at some of the options on Tuesday’s Major League Baseball slate and see where we can find some value to turn a profit.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different O/U player props to payout up to 10x your wager.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. Meanwhile, a Power Play is similar to a parlay — it’s all or nothing.
Here’s how I would approach today’s MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
Christian Yelich Hitter Fantasy Score Under 6
We have the second matchup of this three-game interleague series with the NL Central‘s Milwaukee Brewers hosting the AL East‘s New York Yankees. Right-hander Jameson Taillon is taking the mound for New York in this contest and may provide difficulties for this Brewers lineup.
Taillon enters this game in solid form. Over his last four starts, he is 2-0 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.
This stretch should continue against Milwaukee, a team he dominated back when he was on the Pirates. Across his last seven starts against the Brewers, Taillon boasts a 2.58 ERA and 1.18.
Through 54 career plate appearances against the right-hander, this current Milwaukee lineup possesses a mere .240 BA, .380 SLG, and .283 wOBA. The first hitter we are fading is Christian Yelich.
Failing to get over this number in eight of his last 14 games (57%), he may struggle once again in this matchup. While Yelich has had success against Taillon specifically, he likely will not have enough at-bats against him to get over six without also hitting off New York’s bullpen.
Since August 1, the Yankees’ relief pitching ranks fifth in the league in ERA, eighth in WHIP, seventh in BA, third in SLG, sixth in wOBA, and ninth in FIP. Catching Taillon in good form and a strong bullpen, we have not seen enough from Yelich to justify him getting over six points.
Willy Adames Hitter Fantasy Score Under 6.5
The other Brewers hitter we are fading in this game is Willy Adames. We are getting a very generous number on this total because he has been in great form, however, this is a strong opportunity to sell high on Adames.
He has never faced Taillon before, and it may take a few at-bats to figure him out, especially considering the right-hander boasts a six-pitch arsenal. Additionally, Adames has posted a .234 BA and .291 OBP when facing right-handed pitching this season.
His metrics do not support the current hit streak he is on, specifically his .236 xBA. If there is a time to sell high, it is against Taillon and the Yankees’ bullpen.
Cedric Mullins Hitter Fantasy Score Over 6.5
We have the second matchup of this three-game AL East intradivisional series with the Toronto Blue Jays hosting the Baltimore Orioles. Right-hander Jose Berrios is taking the mound for Toronto and should be a good fade candidate.
Through 28 starts this season, he is 10-5 with a 5.07 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. While those numbers are not good, he enters this game in particularly poor form.
Since the beginning of August, Berrios possesses a 5.40 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. This slide was predictable given his poor metrics this season, posting a .350 xwOBA, .276 xBA, and .475 xSLG.
The first Baltimore hitter we are backing is Cedric Mullins. Going over this total in four of his last six games (67%), he should be able to keep It going against Berrios.
Mullins has been solid against Berrios, going 4-16 with two doubles. However, the bigger reason why I like Mullins in this game is how much better he is against right-handed pitching.
This season, his numbers jump by almost 50% to a tremendous .293 BA, .460 SLG, and .812 OPS when facing right-handers. Given how poor Berrios has been, Mullins should see some great success in the leadoff role in this matchup.
Adley Rutschman Hitter Fantasy Score Over 6.5
The other Orioles hitter we are backing in this contest is Adley Rutschman. Baltimore’s rookie catcher has had a solid campaign to start his career, specifically recently.
Entering this contest with 13 hits over his last 12 games, Rutschman will look to follow up last night’s game where he homered against Toronto.
I am optimistic for this to be the case against Berrios. Through six career plate appearances against the right-hander, he is 4-6 with two doubles and a homer.
We should not expect regression from Rutschman in this specific matchup as he has produced a .458 xBA, 1.021 xSLG, and .622 xwOBA over those six at-bats.
Mike Trout Hitter Fantasy Score Over 7.5
Certainly the most chalky and square play in this stack, we are still going to target Trout to get over this number. In this AL West intradivisional matchup, the Los Angeles Angels are hosting the Seattle Mariners.
Taking the mound for Seattle is George Kirby, who has certainly been on a tear recently. That being said, Trout has been as dialed in as anyone in baseball and he should still have a good shot at getting over this total.
In fact, Trout has gone over this number in 10 of his last 12 games (83%). He should be able to keep It going against Kirby, a guy whom Trout is 1-2 in his career against with a homer and a walk.
Until it starts to fail, Trout should be a blind bet every game with how he is swinging the bat. With last night’s home run, he has now left the park in eight of his last 10 games.