MLB PrizePicks Today, Featuring Ty France & Luis Arraez (Friday, May 19)
Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images. Pictured: Ty France.
We have a stacked 15-game MLB slate on Friday, which means there are plenty of entries to sift through on PrizePicks.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different player squares to payout up to 10x your entry.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money if you do not nail every pick. A Power Play is all-or-nothing.
Here’s how I would approach Friday’s MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player picks in which you combine two or more entries together.
Ty France Fantasy Score More Than 6.5
There is a three-game Interleague series set to get underway on Friday evening with the Atlanta Braves hosting the Seattle Mariners. Slated to take the mound for Atlanta is Bryce Elder.
Through eight starts this season, Elder is 3-0 with a 1.94 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. While those surface-level stats are incredible, they are a bit misleading as the right-hander’s underlying metrics suggest regression.
Currently, he ranks in the 38th percentile or lower in HardHit%, xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, Barrel% and Whiff%. The first Mariners hitter to back in this contest is Ty France.
It has been a solid start to the campaign for France, who possesses a .273 BA, .388 SLG and .737 OPS. His underlying metrics are also strong, ranking in the 62nd percentile or higher in Max Exit Velocity, xwOBA, xBA, K% and Whiff%.
While the power numbers have not been consistent this year, he has plenty of help around him in the batting order to get him across. One of those guys is Jarred Kelenic.
Jarred Kelenic Fantasy Score More Than 7
As Seattle’s clean-up hitter, Kelenic hits two spots behind France in the batting order. As a left-handed hitter, the Wisconsin native absolutely rakes against right-handers.
Since joining MLB, 24 of his 29 homers have come against right-handed pitching. Kelenic has worked to become a well-rounded hitter who doesn’t just rely on power, and the results are certainly demonstrating just that.
Leading the M’s in almost every hitting stat, the 23-year-old boasts a .282 BA, .537 SLG and .870 OPS with eight homers. His underlying metrics illuminate that this increase in production is not a fluke, as Kelenic ranks in the 81st percentile or higher in HardHit%, xwOBA, xBA and xSLG.
Bryan De La Cruz Fantasy Score More Than 6.5
There is a three-game series set to get underway on Friday evening with the Miami Marlins hosting the San Francisco Giants. Slated to take the mound for San Francisco is Anthony DeSclafani.
Through eight starts this season, DeSclafani is 3-3 with a 3.06 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. While those surface-level stats are strong, they are a bit misleading as the right-hander’s underlying metrics suggest he is due for regression.
Currently, he ranks in the 39th percentile or lower in HardHit%, xBA, xSLG, K% and Whiff%. The first Marlins hitter to back in this contest is Bryan De La Cruz. Entering this series in tremendous form, De La Cruz has flown past this number in four of his past five games.
He is averaging 15.6 fantasy points per game over that stretch. This trend is likely to continue against DeSclafani. Since 2021, De La Cruz’s splits jump by roughly 12% against right-handers to a .277 BA, .448 SLG and .767 OPS.
Luis Arraez Fantasy Score More Than 6.5
In a play with some solid correlation, we are also going to back the guy who hits two spots ahead of De La Cruz in the batting order. Luis Arraez is off to a monster start in 2023, leading the league with a spectacular .378 BA while boasting a terrific .473 SLG and .906 OPS.
His underlying metrics are also outstanding, ranking in the 73rd percentile or higher in xwOBA, xBA, K% and Whiff%. Like De La Cruz, Arraez thrives against right-handed pitching.
Since 2021, his splits have taken a roughly 21% jump when facing right-handers to a .330 BA, .432 SLG and .820 OPS. If DeSclafani’s expected regression hits in this game, then De La Cruz and Arraez should both be able to soar past these figures.
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