MLB Props Odds & Picks Today: 2 Bets for Roansy Contreras, Luis Severino (Monday, September 26)
Justin Berl/Getty Images. Pictured: Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Roansy Contreras
Welcome back to another week of baseball betting with my two favorite pitcher props. There are only four games on the baseball slate tonight, but our Action Labs projections never sleep on potential value.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Roansy Contreras Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+100)
|Reds vs Pirates||Pirates -155|
|First Pitch||6:35 p.m. ET|
Roansy Contreras is the type of young, undervalued pitcher I like to target. He's got a solid fastball and an array of secondary offerings that make his stuff some of the best in the game. He ranks in the 84th percentile in Chase Rate and above the 80th percentile in Fastball Velocity, Fastball Spin Rate, and Curveball Spin Rate.
Make sure to keep an eye out for his slider. The bottom falls out of the pitch, and it's gotten batters to whiff almost 45% of the time this season.
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) April 15, 2022
Contreras most recently went to New York and struck out a whopping 10 Yankees over 4 2/3 innings. He's hit this number in 10 of 19 starts this season and is in perfect form.
It should be easy to strike out five Reds tonight. Cincinnati has posted the league's 10th-highest strikeout rate (23.6%) and third-lowest wRC+ (82) against righties this season.
The Reds have also allowed six of the last seven opposing right-handed pitchers to cash their strikeout totals.
Projections adore Contreras today.
- The Action Network's MLB Player Props Tool: 5.7 Ks
- Stokastic's MLB Player Props Tool: 5.1 Ks
- FanGraphs' SaberSim Projections: 5.5 Ks
Yet we get to bet this prop at even money.
Pick: Over 4.5 Ks (+100)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Luis Severino Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-115)
|Yankees vs. Blue Jays||Blue Jays -122|
|First Pitch||7:07 p.m. ET|
The Blue Jays are a great MLB offense. Toronto pairs the league's second-lowest strikeout rate (17.2%) with the league's second-highest wRC+ (120) against RHPs over the last month. Toronto has held five of the last six opposing starting pitchers under their totals.
But Severino has abused the Blue Jay offense this season.
Severino's three starts against Toronto this year:
- 4/14: 5.0 IP, 0 ER 2 H, 2 BB, 83 Pitches, 35% CSW, 6 Ks
- 5/10: 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 97 Pitches, 28% CSW, 8 Ks
- 6/19: 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 H, 4 BB, 102 Pitches, 28% CSW, 9 Ks
The run-prevention marks aren't quite there, but the matchup clearly favors Severino's stuff. He's struck out a number of Toronto batters multiple times, including:
- Jackie Bradley Jr: 12 Ks in 31 PAs
- George Springer: 8 Ks in 23 PAs
- Whit Merrifield: 3 Ks in 12 PAs
- Matt Chapman: 3 Ks in 11 PAs
- Teoscar Hernandez: 5 Ks in 9 PAs
Plus, Severino's had some fun with the dominant Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the past.
Luis severino 3K’s vs. Vladdy tonight ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/B93vW1Bnhc
— The Boys of 161st Street (@The161Boys) April 15, 2022
Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Severino for 6.5 strikeouts tonight. I'm expecting him to easily clear this number against his favorite team to strike out.
Pick: Over 4.5 Ks (-115)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10