MLB Player Props: 3 Bets for Shane McClanahan, Adam Wainwright & Austin Riley
Dilip Vishwanat/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Adam Wainwright
- Tuesday's MLB slate is loaded with 16 games, and there's plenty of value in the props market.
- Our analyst has found value on Shane McClanahan's and Adam Wainwright's strikeout totals, plus a positional prop on Austin Riley.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of the best prop bets from tonight in Major League Baseball.
Tuesday is a jam-packed baseball slate, and it’s a perfect time considering there is no football tonight.
If you’re looking for extra value on tonight’s card, check out these MLB player props courtesy of our Action Labs Projections.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Shane McClanahan Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-150)
|Astros @ Rays|
|First Pitch||6:40 p.m. ET|
It looks like Shane McClanahan might still be limited, considering he threw just 69 pitches in his first start back from a stint on the IL. But his ceiling should be slightly higher today (maybe 75-80 pitches) and this line is simply too low.
Our projections have McClanahan striking out 6.2 tonight, while FanGraphs SaberSim projections have him at 5.7.
McClanahan always cashes this number. He’s struck out at least five in 22 of 25 starts this season. That includes all three starts in which he finished between 60 and 80 pitches.
🔥 Shane McClanahan (TB) has exceeded 5.5 strikeouts in 13 of his last 15 games at home (7.7 strikeouts/game average).
— Fansure MLB (@Fansure_MLB) September 20, 2022
The Astros are a tough offense, and one of the most disciplined as well. But McClanahan took on a similarly tough lineup in Toronto five days ago and struck out five over just 69 pitches.
McClanahan ranks above the 95th percentile in both swinging-strike rate (16.3%) and CSW rate (33.9%) this season. Trust in his abilities and don’t fade him just because of a potential pitch count or the opposing offense.
Pick: Over 4.5 Ks (-160)
Action Labs Grade: 9/10
Adam Wainwright Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+105)
|Cardinals @ Padres|
|First Pitch||9:40 p.m. ET|
I consistently bet Adam Wainwright’s strikeout overs. His stuff isn’t the same as it used to be, but he always gives the Cardinals enough length to cash his numbers.
I’m not sure why his strikeout number has dropped to 3.5 for this start. The Padres aren’t the most disciplined lineup, ranking around 18th in strikeout rate during the second half (21.4%). Moreover, the Padres have just a 90 wRC+ over the past month.
Plus, Waino fanned 10 over seven innings the last time he faced the Padres.
Wainwright is best at accumulating strikes. While he has one of the lowest swinging-strike rates (6.7%) in the league, he is also above-average in CSW rate (28.1%).
Plus, he can still force whiffs with his rainbow curveball.
Adam Wainwright, Pretty 75mph Curveball. 🌈 pic.twitter.com/QkJbna4jA7
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 15, 2022
Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Wainwright for 4.7 strikeouts tonight, while FanGraphs SaberSim projections mark him for 4.4.
Yet we get to bet over 3.5 Ks at plus-money.
Pick: Over 3.5 Ks (+105)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Austin Riley Over 1.5 Total Bases (-125)
|Nationals @ Braves|
|First Pitch||7:20 p.m. ET|
You’re probably looking for a way to fade Patrick Corbin tonight. You could bet the Braves RL, Braves TT over, or the over 8.5.
Or you could bet some of the Braves hot bats. There are four guys in particular who you could target in the batting markets tonight:
- Orlando Arcia
- Marcell Ozuna
- Dansby Swanson
- Austin Riley
All four have eight hits lifetime against Corbin. But my favorite guy is Riley.
Everyone is aware of the MVP-caliber season Riley is having. He’s become one of the best bats in baseball, currently sitting with 5.4 fWAR and a 146 wRC+. He’s hit a whopping 37 home runs and is closing in on 40.
— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) September 19, 2022
Against Corbin, Riley is 8-for-27 lifetime with three doubles and two home runs. But he’s due for some extra regression considering his batted-ball stats, as his 91.2-mph avg. exit velocity and 18.6-degree avg. launch angle against Corbin produces a .317 xBA and a .699 xSLG.
Plus, Riley loves playing the Nationals. Riley’s cashes his bases prop in nine of 14 games against Washington, compiling a ridiculous 45 bases in those games. He’s abused both the Nationals rotation and bullpen in 2022.
If Riley doesn’t cash this against The Corpse of Patrick Corbin, there’s a good chance he’ll take advantage of a horrific Nationals bullpen on Tuesday.
Pick: Over 1.5 TBs (+105)