MLB Props Odds, Picks: 2 Bets for Hunter Greene, Justin Verlander (Thursday, September 22)
Logan Riely/Getty Images. Pictured: Justin Verlander #35 of the Houston Astros.
Check out my two favorite MLB pitcher props for Thursday’s slate, courtesy of our Action Labs projections.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Hunter Greene Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-150)
|Brewers vs. Reds||Brewers -160|
|First Pitch||6:40 p.m. ET|
You will be tempted to bet Hunter Greene’s over at plus-money. You will see highlights of his 100mph fastball and his disgusting slider.
Hunter Greene, 89mph Slider and 101mph Fastball, Overlay pic.twitter.com/vZAAHx9nf3
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 18, 2022
While his future is bright, do not be fooled by the narrative. This number is too high.
Greene has struck out eight or more batters in just six of his 21 starts this season. That 29% hit rate implies -250 odds to the over. We might just be getting this line because of his last two starts (8 Ks vs MIA, 11 Ks vs STL), but that just means he’s overvalued.
Greene has faced this Brewers lineup Three times this season and failed to reach eight strikeouts in all three attempts. The Brewers aren’t striking out that much now, either, posting a league-average strikeout rate against RHPs over the last 30 days (23%).
The projections love this under, as well:
- The Action Network’s Player Props Tool: 5.7 Ks
- StoKastic’s Player Props Tool: 6.8 Ks
- FanGraphs SaberSim Projections: 6.9 Ks
Greene should finish with five to seven strikeouts tonight.
Pick: Under 7.5 Ks (-150)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Justin Verlander Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-132)
|Astros vs. Orioles||Astros -190|
|First Pitch||7:05 p.m. ET|
Justin Verlander is 39 years old. His numbers this season:
- 17-3 record
- 1.78 ERA over 157 innings and 25 starts
- .834 WHIP
- 9.34 K/9
- 1.55 BB/9
- 11.8% Swinging-Strike rate (60th percentile)
Verlander has cashed this number in 15 of 25 starts this season, including three straight. Verlander has struck out 25 batters over just his last 14 innings. He’s been historically good.
At 39 years old, Justin Verlander is the oldest pitcher in the last 100 years with 25 strikeouts and zero runs allowed in a three-game span.
The only other pitchers to do this at 35 years or older were R.A. Dickey in 2012, Roger Clemens in 1998 and Nolan Ryan in 1984. pic.twitter.com/ITVubzViVz
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) September 17, 2022
This streak includes a start against Baltimore. Verlander pitched just three innings and struck out six Orioles while allowing just three hits. He forced a 30% CSW rate during that start.
Verlander has plus-strikeout matchups against most of the O’s lineup, but there are three guys, in particular, I’d look for:
- Verlander vs. Rougned Odor: 44 PA, 6 H, 28.9% Whiff, 12 Ks
- Verlander vs Robinson Chirinos: 16 PA, 5 H, 41.4% Whiff, 8 Ks
- Verlander vs Anthony Santander: 7 PA, 2 H, 29.4% Whiff, 3 Ks
Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Verlander for a whopping 7.1 strikeouts tonight, giving us a 15% edge over this line BetRivers is offering.
Pick: Over 5.5 Ks (-132)
Action Labs Grade: 9/10