MLB Props, Odds Friday | Best Bets for Corey Seager, Freddie Freeman, Lance Lynn
Photo by Tim Heitman/Getty Images. Pictured: Corey Seager.
The Diamondbacks are coming off a series victory in Atlanta and will now face the Reds in Cincinnati. The matchup will feature two of the NL's most surprising teams and most electrifying rookies, but Corbin Carroll is the rookie to back tonight.
The Rangers welcomed a pair of 2022 AL playoff teams to Texas coming out of the All-Star break in the Guardians and Rays. This weekend, they will get an NL challenger when the Dodgers visit. This matchup also will feature two of the league's best hitters in Freddie Freeman and Corey Seager.
Lance Lynn has been the subject of trade rumors as we get closer to the trade deadline. He could look more desirable to several teams after he and the White Sox face the Twins. With Joe Ryan opposing him, there could be plenty of strikeouts on both sides.
MLB Player Props For Friday, July 21
Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In (-155)
|Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds||Cincinnati -118|
|First Pitch||7:05 p.m. ET|
The past month has been a bit rough for Corbin Carroll, who entered yesterday's game hitting .211 in that span. However, a big series in Atlanta may be just what he needs to get jump-started. Against the Braves, Carroll recorded three hits, including a triple and a home run. He has gone over this line in two of his past three games, while scoring six runs and knocking in three as well over that span.
Tonight, Carroll will work from Great American Ball Park, which is one of my favorite ballparks for hitting props and a favorite of many hitters. He will face right-hander Ben Lively, who has been solid this season with a 3.72 ERA. However, Lively has allowed five doubles, seven home runs and a .460 slugging percentage to left-handed batters.
An extra-base hit would put Carroll in great position to go over this line. A home run would clear it while a double or triple would put him in scoring position to be knocked in. With his speed, his teammates will not need to hit the ball far to drive him in. Carroll has scored a run in four straight games and ranks eighth in the majors in runs scored.
Carroll is -125 to a score a run if you want the better odds. However, when he is on his game, he fills up the stat sheet in all areas. Additionally, I expect Arizona to score some runs tonight either off Lively or the Reds bullpen, and Carroll should be a contributing factor.
Pick: Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In
Freddie Freeman/Corey Seager One-Hit Parlay (-120)
|Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Texas Rangers||Los Angeles -110|
|First Pitch||8:06 p.m. ET|
Freddie Freeman and Corey Seager have never played together in the big leagues, but they are connected. When Seager left the Dodgers to sign with the Rangers as a free agent, the Dodgers got Freddie Freeman to replace his left-handed bat in the lineup. So far, I would say those deals are working out for both teams.
Freeman ranks sixth in the Major Leagues with a .320 batting average, 11th with 64 runs batted in and fourth with a .957 OPS. His average drops a bit to .295 against lefties, but he hits for more power. Freeman has hit 10 of his 17 home runs against left-handed pitchers.
Freeman will face Andrew Heaney tonight, against whom he is 0-for-1 with a walk. Heaney does not often go past five innings, in case Freeman needs a hit off the Rangers bullpen.
Meanwhile, Seager is hitting .346 this season. He would be leading the American League in batting average (and rank second in the MLB), but he is not yet qualified for the batting title. If he keeps playing at home, the batting title may be in his sights. Seager is hitting .370 with nine of his 14 home runs at home. He also is hitting .356 against right-handers and will face former teammate Tony Gonsolin for the first time.
Seager has recorded a hit in five of his past six and 20 of his past 23 games. Freeman is coming off a rare 0-for-3 day in Baltimore, which is actually part of the reason I like him tonight. He has a hit in 15 of his past 20 games, so there is a good chance that both of these elite batters find the hit column tonight.
Lance Lynn/Joe Ryan Six-Strikeouts Parlay (-125)
|Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins||Minnesota -174|
|First Pitch||8:10 p.m. ET|
Lance Lynn's season-long numbers are not pretty as his ERA still sits over six. However, that has not stopped him from piling up the strikeouts, as he is tied for ninth in the majors with 133 strikeouts. He struck out 11 in seven scoreless innings against the Blue Jays and followed that up with six in 5 and 1/3 innings against the Braves over his last two starts.
Lynn has recorded six strikeouts in each of his last six starts and in 13 of 19 this season. Tonight, he gets the Twins, who are first in Strikeout Rate against right-handed pitchers. Meanwhile, his teammates will have to deal with Joe Ryan on the other side.
Ryan is not far behind Lynn with 131 strikeouts this season, which ranks 11th in the Major Leagues. He has punched out at least six in five of his last six starts and also in 13 of 19 starts this season. He will face a White Sox lineup that ranks 12th in Strikeout Rate against right-handed pitchers.
Ryan had seven strikeouts in his first start against the White Sox this season in Chicago. He should be more comfortable at home, where he has seven strikeouts in seven of nine starts this season.
The line is set at 6.5 strikeouts for both Lynn and Ryan. However, dropping them to six increases the hit rate by 21% for Lynn and 10% for Ryan. Given that they both have good matchups and should pitch long enough to get six strikeouts, this combo is a solid price. However, you can also get more ambitious with this matchup.
Lynn had 10 strikeouts in his lone start against the Twins this season, which was also in Minnesota. Recently, Kyle Gibson, Luis Castillo and George Kirby have each recorded 10 strikeouts against the Twins. Parlaying both for eight strikeouts is +390 while Lynn for 10 and Ryan for 8 gives us +1136 odds.
Pick: Lance Lynn/Joe Ryan Six-Strikeouts Parlay