MLB Props Monday, April 10 | Today’s Best Bets For Paul Goldschmidt

MLB Props Monday, April 10 | Today’s Best Bets For Paul Goldschmidt article feature image

Stacy Revere/Getty Images. Pictured: Paul Goldschmidt

Welcome to the second full week of the MLB season, so it's the second full week of our MLB player props.

Every day, I try to add an edge to my MLB card by adding a few props using our Action Labs projections. Our Action Labs Player Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting picks in my discussions below.

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MLB Player Props For Monday, April 10

Nick Pivetta under 5.5 strikeouts (-135)

Red Sox @ Rays
First Pitch6:40 p.m. ET
Best LineBetMGM

Everyone knows Nick Pivetta by now. He's streaky and can be streaky good, but he ultimately gives up too much hard contact and finishes every season with an ERA around 4.50.

After finishing among the bottom five percent of qualified pitchers in avg. EV and hard-hit rate allowed last season, Pivetta is on his way to a duplicate result. The Pirates posted a 97 mph avg. EV and a 76.9% hard-hit rate against the Red Sox starter in his 2023 debut.

Pivetta is simply getting shelled.

Unfortunately for Pivetta, he's facing the red-hot Rays on Monday. Tampa is the first team since 2003 to start a season 9-0, doing so behind the league's fourth-best avg. EV (90.5 mph) and second-best barrel rate (12.1%).

Given the batted ball statistics, I could see Pivetta struggling in a shorter start, which already places value on under 5.5 Ks.

But even if Pivetta does post a quality start, how high is his strikeout ceiling?

Pivetta eclipsed five strikeouts in only 11 of his 33 starts last season, finishing the year as a below-average pitcher in strikeouts per inning (.95), swinging-strike rate (10%) and CSW rate (26.7%). His fastball has life, but he still doesn't miss bats.

The Rays are a strikeout-prone team, which likely has inflated this strikeout prop. But Pivetta tossed four starts against the Rays in 2022 and went under 5.5 Ks every time, finishing with 16 strikeouts in 19 2/3 innings.

Moreover, the Rays have held six of nine opposing starting pitchers under their strikeout total this year.

The Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Pivetta for 4.9 Ks on Monday, while BallParkPal's pitcher simulations project him for 5.0.

Either way, the play is on Pivetta under 5.5 Ks (-135) at BetMGM Sportsbook.

Pick: Under 5.5 Ks (-135)

Action Labs Grade: 7/10

Paul Goldschmidt over 1.5 total bases (-125)

Cardinals @ Rockies
First Pitch8:40 p.m. ET
Best LineBetMGM

Paul Goldschmidt was a cash cow last season. He would cash everything on a nightly basis, going over in the hits, home runs, total bases and doubles markets, among everything else.

So, I don't need to convince you to back Goldschmidt on any given day. He's already cashed over 1.5 bases in five of nine games this year.

But it is worth discussing how he's dominated German Marquez in his career.

Goldschmidt is 17-for-40 lifetime off Marquez with eight extra-base hits, including four home runs. The Cardinal has posted a 92.3 mph avg. EV and a 10.8-degree avg. launch angle across those batted balls, adding up to a .718 xSLG.

Goldy has terrorized most opposing hitters during his MLB career, but he's been particularly devastating to Marquez.

Goldschmidt played the Rockies in two Marquez starts last year, piling up 10 bases across the two games. However, Goldschmidt also cashed his bases prop in three of the other four games he played against the Rockies, recording another 10 bases across those three appearances.

Additionally, they're playing at Coors Field today. And the weather is expected to be perfect, with temperatures in the 70s and a light, 10 mph breeze straight out to center field.

Goldschmidt's in for a huge Monday night. Make sure you capitalize with a bet on his total bases prop.

Pick: Over 1.5 TBs (-125)

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