MLB Props Today | Odds, Picks for Aaron Nola, Elly De La Cruz & More (Friday, August 4)
Photo by Brandon Sloter/Image Of Sport/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Nola (Phillies)
Following a series win in the Bronx, the Rays are in Detroit for a three-game set against the Tigers.
Meanwhile, the Yankees took game one of their four-game series, 4-3, against the Astros last night.
Tonight, Reese Olson and Luis Severino may be a pair of starters worth fading.
The Reds are licking their wounds a bit after dropping three of four in Chicago and are now a half-game behind the Brewers in the tight NL Central race. However, they'll return home to face a Nationals team they swept in the nation's capital. Elly De La Cruz will look to jumpstart the Reds' offense and a new winning streak.
The Phillies took three of four from the Marlins in Miami and remain in the second NL wild card spot. They'll return home to face the Royals and will give the ball to Aaron Nola. He'll have a good chance to pile up the strikeouts.
MLB Player Props For Friday, August 4
Reese Olson/Luis Severino Not To Record A Win Parlay (-135)
| Rays at Tigers/Astros at Yankees | |
| First Pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET, 7:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Olson has shown that he has the stuff to stick in MLB; he has 47 strikeouts in 49 2/3 innings. He also has recorded just one win in 11 appearances and eight starts. That's partially due to playing on a Tigers team that's 12 games below .500, but he also rarely pitches longer than five innings.
Olson has completed six innings just twice and has gone 5 1/3 innings in two other starts. He has also allowed nine earned runs in his last two starts and will face a Tampa lineup that found its offense a bit in New York after a dreadful month of July.
I don't expect the Tigers to have the lead when he exits the game.
Meanwhile, Severino has struggled mightily after two strong starts in his return from the injured list. He's given up four runs in seven of his last 10 starts, including seven runs in four of them. Severino has a 7.49 ERA and has just two wins in 12 starts this season.
He's particularly struggled against left-handed hitters, as they're slashing .360/.420/.648 against him. Tonight, he'll have to deal with Kyle Tucker (who homered last night) and Yordan Alvarez. I expect at least one of them — if not both — to get to Severino.
On DraftKings, the Rays are -148, while the Astros are -142 on the moneyline, so the odds are in our favor for Olson and Severino not recording wins.
However, we also will cash if the Rays or Astros tie the game after they exit. Last night, Clarke Schmidt was in line for a win after five innings, but Tucker's home run tied the game.
Pick: Reese Olson/Luis Severino Not To Record A Win Parlay
Elly De La Cruz Over 0.5 Runs Scored (-135)
| Nationals vs. Reds | |
| First Pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
De La Cruz led off last night's game with his eighth home run of the season. It was his fourth in just 60 at-bats out of the leadoff spot.
It also gave De La Cruz a run scored for the seventh time in the last 10 games. In the series in Washington, De La Cruz scored four runs and hit this line in three of the four games.
De La Cruz has recorded a hit in eight of his last 10 games. He's hitting .259 against left-handed pitchers this season, but he went 3-for-3 against Patrick Corbin.
I always look for opportunities to fade Corbin, as he's declined into one of the game's worst starting pitchers over the last three years. He allowed six runs on 10 hits in five innings in his last start against the Reds.
The Reds have scored six runs or more in four of their last five games. I expect them to get to Corbin and the Nationals' bullpen tonight. As the leadoff hitter, De La Cruz stands to benefit, as he may get five plate appearances in this game.
If that's the case, it would be surprising if he didn't score at least one run.
You can also take him to score two runs at +300 on FanDuel.
Pick: Elly De La Cruz Over 0.5 Runs Scored
Aaron Nola Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-120)
| Royals vs. Phillies | |
| First Pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| Best Line | DraftKings |
Nola has his lowest K/9 in the last five years. However, he's still averaging over a strikeout per inning and has 139 strikeouts in 138 innings this season. He's averaging 7.4 strikeouts over both his last 10 and last five starts. He had 37 strikeouts in 32 1/3 innings in July.
Nola has hit this line in five of his last 10 starts. He also has been hooked on six in three other starts in that span.
Tonight, I like his chances to get to seven against Kansas City. The Royals are eighth in Strikeout Rate against right-handed pitchers.
Additionally, the oddsmakers expect Nola to go deep into this ball game. His outs recorded line is at 19.5, which means he would need at least 6 2/3 innings to hit the over. Nola has pitched at least seven innings in three of his last five starts and he had struck out seven batters in two of those.
He's also hit this line in four of the last five starts that he's thrown 100 pitches in.
Nola has struck out 10 batters three times this season and 10 could be in play tonight against a lineup like the Royals.
You can take him for 10 at +540 on FanDuel.
Pick: Aaron Nola Over 6.5 Strikeouts
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