MLB Props | Odds, Picks for Jeremy Pena, Ryan McMahon, Kevin Gausman
Via Patrick McDermott/Getty Images. Pictured: Jeremy Pena #3 of the Houston Astros flies out to deep center in the fourth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field on May 23, 2023 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
- Alex Hinton is back with a three-pack of MLB player props for Thursday.
- He has one pitcher prop and two batter props ready for three different games throughout the day.
- Find Hinton's expert MLB player prop picks and predictions below.
The Brewers and the Blue Jays have split the first two games of their three-game series in Toronto. In the rubber match, the Blue Jays will send Kevin Gausman to the mound for the series victory, and he may pitch just long enough to walk a couple of batters.
In the desert, the Rockies look to avoid a four-game sweep at the hands of the Diamondbacks. Colorado has scored just one run in the past two games, but that has not derailed the hot streak that Ryan McMahon has been on. He will look to keep his momentum going against a familiar foe in Zach Davies.
Coming off a sweep of the Oakland Athletics, the Astros lost two of three back home in Houston against the Twins. They will continue their homestand with a four-game series against the Angels. Jeremy Pena should be in a good spot as he faces Angels left-hander Reid Detmers.
MLB Player Props For Thursday, June 1
Kevin Gausman Over 1.5 Walks (-105)
|Brewers vs. Blue Jays||Toronto -184|
|First Pitch||1:07 p.m. ET|
With the struggles of Alek Manoah so far in 2023, the Blue Jays have needed Kevin Gausman more than ever. He has stepped up as he has a 3.03 ERA and 2.52 FIP this season. Gausman has walked just 16 batters in 68.1 innings, but he has walked nine batters in his last three starts. Five of them came against the Minnesota Twins in his last outing.
The Twins are sixth in Walk Rate against right-handed pitchers. Today, Gausman faces a Brewers club that ranks 16th in Walk Rate against right-handed pitchers. However, they have drawn 10 walks in the first two games of this series with eight coming off Blue Jays starters Yusei Kikuchi and Manoah. Christian Yelich is responsible for four of those walks, and he is +135 to draw one walk if you prefer to play him instead.
Gausman has gone over this line of 1.5 walks in each of his last three starts, pitching into the sixth inning in each of them. He has pitched six full innings in eight of his 11 starts this season and gone seven full innings in four of them.
The longer Gausman pitches into this game, the higher his chances of hitting this line as he will face more batters. Gausman is averaging 25.3 batters faced per start, and we need two walks (8% of 25 batters) to hit this line. I will take those chances at even money.
Pick: Kevin Gausman Over 1.5 Walks
Ryan McMahon Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120)
|Rockies vs. Diamondbacks||Arizona -174|
|First Pitch||3:40 p.m. ET|
Yesterday, Ryan McMahon's five-game hitting streak was snapped. Despite the 0-for-3 performance, over the last week McMahon is hitting .500 with four home runs, 12 RBIs and a 1.709 OPS. Today he has a favorable matchup to bounce back against Zach Davies.
In his career, McMahon is 5-for-19 with two home runs off Davies. Davies has made just three starts this season, but he has been hit harder by left-handed hitters. In those starts, lefties are slashing .417/.500/.542 with one home run against him. Seven of McMahon’s eight home runs this season have come against right-handed pitchers. His OPS is also nearly 200 points higher (.858 vs. 659) against right-handed pitchers.
Over half (19 of 37) of his hits against right-handers this year have gone for extra bases. One extra-base hit would have him clear this line in one swing. This is a line that he has cleared in five of his past seven games.
Yesterday’s game came against left-hander Tommy Henry, but today is a much more favorable spot against Zach Davies, and consequently, I like his chances to get back on track.
Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105)
|Angels vs. Astros||Houston -184|
|First Pitch||8:05 p.m. ET|
Like McMahon, Jeremy Peña has recorded two total bases in five of his past seven games. Over that span, he is hitting .320 with two home runs, four runs batted in and a 1.113 OPS. He also has three doubles and three multi-hit games in that stretch. Though he is a right-handed hitter, Peña actually has reverse splits. He is hitting .232 with three home runs and a .742 OPS against left-handed pitchers. However, he likes facing Angels starter Reid Detmers. In his young career, Pena is 4-for-7 with a double against Detmers.
In general, when Shohei Ohtani is not on the mound, I look to fade the Angels pitchers. Detmers is no exception, as he is 0-4 with a 4.93 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and -0.2 WAR thus far this season.
Against right-handed hitters, Detmers has allowed three home runs, six doubles, a .264 batting average and .720 OPS. An extra-base hit would work perfectly to clear this line. Peña also may receive some better pitches to hit as he hits second in the Houston lineup, in between Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez. The reigning World Series MVP is a formidable hitter in his own right, and I like him for two bases today.