MLB Prop Picks Today | Gavin Williams, Clayton Kershaw, More
Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images. Pictured: Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers)
- Alex Hinton is targeting three picks in Tuesday's MLB player props market.
- Hinton is backing an Orioles hitter, as well as two pitchers, including a future hall of famer.
- Dive in below and formulate your MLB card for tonight's action.
Last night, the rain couldn't slow down the Orioles as they cruised to a 10-3 victory over the Reds despite multiple delays. Anthony Santander stayed hot with another multi-hit performance, and today, he gets the young left-hander Andrew Abbott.
Speaking of young pitchers, Gavin Williams' MLB debut didn't go according to plan, as he allowed four runs in 5 2/3 innings against the Athletics. The Guardians were able to get him off the hook for the loss by rallying for a 7-6 victory.
Cleveland may provide him with run support again on Tuesday, as several Guardians have strong track records against Brady Singer. However, I expect Williams to fare better against the Royals in his second start.
The Dodgers lost in extra innings on Sunday night, 6-5, to the Astros. But with Clayton Kershaw getting the ball on Tuesday, they're heavy favorites to get back in the win column in Colorado. The value may be backing Kershaw directly, though.
MLB Player Props For Tuesday, June 27
Anthony Santander Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115)
|Reds vs. Orioles|
|First Pitch||7:05 p.m. ET|
Santander has been on a home run binge over the past week, as he's hit five long balls in his last seven games. He didn't homer in last night's outing, but he did have two hits. He's hitting .357 over his past seven games with those five home runs and nine runs batted in.
Abbott will get the start for the Reds, but that shouldn't phase the switch-hitting Santander. Against left-handed pitchers, Santander is hitting .288 with six doubles, three home runs and a .930 OPS this season.
Abbott has been tough thus far with a 1.14 ERA over his first four starts of his career. However, he allowed the first three runs of his career (three solo home runs) in his last start against Colorado.
Santander is +360 to hit a home run on FanDuel tonight if you want to play him for Dinger Tuesday. However, he also has recorded a hit in eight of his past 10 games. He had two hits in five of those games.
That's helped him clear this line in eight of his last 10 games, averaging 3.1 total bases in that span.
I like Santander to record at least two total bases tonight.
Pick: Anthony Santander Over 1.5 Total Bases
Gavin Williams Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-135)
|Guardians vs. Royals|
|First Pitch||8:10 p.m. ET|
This season, I have targeted starting pitcher strikeout props against the Royals, and for good reason.
The Royals are fifth in MLB in strikeout percentage (24.5%) against right-handed pitchers. They've really been striking out a ton of late.
Eight of the last 10 starting pitchers they've faced have gone over their strikeout lines. All of them had at least five strikeouts, while five had at least seven strikeouts, including 12 from Tyler Glasnow on Sunday.
The latest beneficiary could be Williams. The Guardians' rookie only had four strikeouts in his MLB debut, but the strikeout stuff is definitely there.
Across two seasons in the minors, Williams struck out 230 batters in just 175.1 innings and also had a 2.10 ERA. It's one of the reasons he was regarded as a top 20 prospect at the time of his call-up.
Williams pitched 5 2/3 innings in his first start, which is a good sign for this prop. Many young pitchers are limited by pitch counts or capped at five innings. Williams may only need five innings to hit this line if he has a strikeout per inning.
However, if he puts a quality outing together, the potential is there for him to climb the ladder tonight.
On bet365, you can take Williams for seven strikeouts at +300 and eight strikeouts +600.
Pick: Gavin Williams Over 4.5 Strikeouts
Clayton Kershaw To Record A Win (-115)
|Dodgers vs. Rockies|
|First Pitch||8:40 p.m. ET|
Kershaw recorded his 200th win earlier this season, and he's now up to 206 in his illustrious career. Tonight, he's going for his 10th win of the season.
He's coming off one of his best outings of the year, tossing seven scoreless innings against the Angels. He had to pitch in distress in a scoreless game. He got out of a jam in the bottom of the seventh inning and then the Dodgers pushed across two runs in the eighth inning to earn him a win.
Tonight, the Dodgers are -275 on DraftKings and -295 on FanDuel on the moneyline. They're heavy favorites because the oddmakers expect Kershaw to get more run support.
Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts' total bases are set at 2.5. Other notable Dodgers bats — like Will Smith and J.D. Martinez — are at 1.5 total bases, but at -140 odds or worse.
Those lines are partially indicative of the game being at Coors Field, but also because the Dodgers are facing Connor Seabold.
In his last start against the Braves, Seabold gave up four home runs and nine runs, boosting his ERA from 4.70 to 5.88. It broke a run of three consecutive starts with two earned runs allowed or fewer for Seabold.
However, he allowed at least four runs in each of his last three starts in May. He also allowed four runs in three innings in his only appearance against the Dodgers this season.
Early run support will benefit Kershaw, who's 11-8 with a 4.82 ERA in his career at Coors Field.
However, this won't be one of the tougher Rockies lineups he's faced. The Rockies are just 15th in MLB in runs scored despite playing their home games at Coors Field.
Kershaw has pitched at least five innings in each of his last five starts, so he should pitch long enough to qualify for the win.
He's pitched at least seven innings in three of four starts this month. He's also 3-0 with a 1.33 ERA in June, allowing just four runs on four solo homers.
I like his chances of picking up his fourth win this month.