MLB Odds & Prediction: Same-Game Parlay for Thursday, September 1: How to Bet Rangers vs. Red Sox
Emil Lippe/Getty Images. Pictured: Mark Mathias
- Thursday's MLB slate is light, but there's always value to be found somewhere.
- The Rangers and Red Sox meet tonight at Fenway, and our analyst has found a same-game-parlay with loads (nearly +1000) of value.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of how to bet tonight's American League matchup.
Rangers vs Red Sox Odds
|Red Sox Odds||-178|
|Time||7:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
Below, I will walk through a few picks we will parlay together for a higher payout. When creating a “same-game parlay,” my approach is all or nothing.
While that statement is sort of like “the sky is blue,” let me explain. In my opinion, it’s essential that we find plays that have a strong correlation with each other, as we do not get anything for coming close in a parlay.
If we have multiple plays that have a strong correlation with each other, then we could swing and miss on all of them, and that’s OK. There’s absolutely no difference between going 0-for-3 or 2-for-3 on a parlay.
That said, my goal in creating these parlays is to grab plays that increase the probability of the other plays hitting. For example, if I bet on a bunch of players on one team to generate runs, then it’s more likely that their team would also win that game.
Following this mold, I have three plays below for this featured game between the Rangers and Red Sox. Let’s take a look at the selections.
The Parlay (+957):
- Texas Rangers ML (+150)
- Mark Mathias – Record a Run (+180)
- Ezequiel Duran – Record an RBI (+210)
Same-Game Parlay – Rangers vs Red Sox
Texas Rangers ML (+150)
We are getting a generous price on the Rangers in this contest, partly due to the fact that they are riding a four-game losing streak. Now, we have a good opportunity to buy low on the Rangers as they are slated to go against left-hander Rich Hill.
Through 19 starts this season, Hill is 6-5 with a 4.32 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Based on his metrics this year, we should not expect to see any positive regression from Hill as he possesses a .320 xwOBA, .247 xBA and .424 xSLG.
Over his last three starts against Texas, Hill has been nothing special as he possesses a 3.52 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. This should be a great matchup for the Rangers, a team that excels against left-handed pitching.
When facing left-handed pitchers, Texas ranks fourth in the league in BA, fourth in SLG, fifth in OPS and fifth in wOBA since the beginning of August. Even if he has a decent start, Hill is followed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball.
Since August 1, Boston’s relief pitching ranks 30th in the league in ERA, 28th in WHIP, 28th in BA, 23rd in SLG, 26th in wOBA and 20th in xFIP. The Red Sox have been one of the most valuable teams to fade this year, a trend I expect to continue against the Rangers.
Mark Mathias – Record a Run
If we are fading Boston’s pitching staff and backing the Rangers to win the game, then we obviously need them to score runs.
Enter Mark Mathias.
Since getting traded to Texas from Milwaukee in the Matt Bush deal, Mathias has been excellent at the dish. Through eight games with the Rangers, he boasts a .458 BA, .792 SLG and 1.272 OPS.
Tallying five runs over that eight-game stretch, Mathias could be a good bet to do so once again. When facing left-handed pitchers this season, he boasts a .320 BA, .720 SLG and 1.053 OPS.
Ezequiel Duran – Record an RBI
If we are backing Mathias to record a run, then we obviously need someone to drive him in (unless he homers). There is no better candidate to back in doing so than the guy who hits right behind Mathias in the batting order, Ezequiel Duran.
Duran has not had the best season, posting a .243 BA, .384 SLG and .673 OPS through 51 games. However, the last 10 games have gone better for him.
Over that stretch, Duran has collected nine hits and six RBI while homering twice. I would not be shocked if he succeeds against Hill as well.
Most of Duran’s power has come against left-handers this season, boasting a .427 SLG and .703 OPS. Between Boston’s poor pitching and the Rangers’ performance against left-handers, we should expect to see this lineup get through the batting order at least five times, giving us plenty of opportunities to cash on these player props.