MLB Same Game Parlay: How to Bet Twins vs White Sox (Monday, October 3)

MLB Same Game Parlay: How to Bet Twins vs White Sox (Monday, October 3) article feature image

Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images. Pictured: Bailey Ober #16 of the Minnesota Twins.

  • The Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox will close out their season with a three-game set between division foes.
  • Neither team has a postseason berth to play for, but Tony Sartori sees value in this matchup.
  • He breaks down both sides and his same game parlay bets below.

Twins vs White Sox Odds

Twins Odds-102
White Sox Odds-116
Over/Under7 (-120/-102)
Time8:10 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

We have the first matchup of this final three-game AL Central intradivisional series with the Chicago White Sox hosting the MinnesotaTwins. Both of these teams are eliminated from the playoffs but will look to end the year on a high note.

Below, I will walk through a few picks we will parlay together for a higher payout. When creating a same-game parlay, my approach is all or nothing.

In my opinion, it’s essential that we find plays that have a strong correlation with each other, as we do not get anything for coming close in a parlay.

If we have multiple plays that have a strong correlation to each other, then we could swing and miss on all of them, and that’s OK. There’s absolutely no difference between going 0-for-3 or 2-for-3 on a parlay.

That said, my goal in creating these parlays is to grab plays that increase the probability of the other plays hitting. For example, if I bet on a bunch of players on one team to generate runs, then it’s more likely that their team would also win that game.

Following this mold, I have three plays below for this contest between the Twins and White Sox. Let’s take a look at the selections.

The Parlay (+1037):

  • Minnesota Twins -1.5 (+172)
  • Gio Urshela – Record a Run (+145)
  • Matt Wallner – Record an RBI (+210)

Same-Game Parlay – Twins vs White Sox

Minnesota Twins -1.5

Before we dive into why we are backing the Twins, let's get into the runline. If you are going to back Minnesota to win, you might as well take them -1.5 because of their last 13 wins, they covered the runline 11 times.

Taking the mound for the Twins is right-hander Bailey Ober. Producing a solid strong sophomore campaign, Ober has posted a 3.18 ERA and 1.10 WHIP through 10 starts.

The reason for the low number of starts is because of a groin injury he suffered in June, which sidelined him until the beginning of September. Once he came back, Ober picked up right where he left off as he has generated a 1.56 ERA and 0.76 WHIP through three starts.

His most recent start was against the White Sox, and he threw a gem. Over seven and one-third innings, Ober allowed zero runs on just two hits while striking out 10.

Minnesota won and covered in that contest. On the other side, right-hander Johnny Cueto is slated to take the mound for Chicago.

While he has had a strong year in general, Cueto has started to slip recently. Over his last three starts, he is 0-3 with a 7.71 ERA and 1.80 WHIP.

The most recent of those starts was against the Twins, a game in which Cueto got shelled. Through five and two-thirds innings pitched, he allowed six runs on 10 hits.

Minnesota won and covered the runline in that outing.

Gio Urshela – Record a Run

If we are fading Cueto and backing the Twins to win the game, then we obviously need them to score runs.

Enter Gio Urshela.

Urshela has put together a solid campaign for Minnesota this season, producing a .283 BA, .424 SLG, and .759 OPS. Entering this game in particularly good form, Urshela has collected 15 hits, four RBI, and seven runs over his last eight games.

We should expect this good stretch of hitting to continue in this contest. Through nine career at-bats against Cueto, Urshela has posted a .556 BA, .778 SLG, and .575 wOBA.

I mentioned above how Cueto got smacked in his last start against Minnesota. In that game, Urshela crossed the plate three times.

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Matt Wallner – Record an RBI

If we are backing Urshela to record a run, then we obviously need someone to drive him in (unless he homers). There is perhaps no better candidate to back in doing so than the guy who is projected to hit two spots behind Urshela in the batting order, Matt Wallner.

The rookie outfielder has only played in 15 games this season, but he has already made his mark as he has produced a .417 SLG and .723 OPS while hitting two home runs. He is not the strongest hitter in terms of hitting for average, but an extra-base hit could be exactly what we need from Wallner to get Urshela across the plate.

Again, I refer you to Cueto's last start against Minnesota. I already discussed how Urshela crossed the plate three times, but I did not tell you that two of those were directly due to Wallner.

In the second inning of that game, Wallner doubled off Cueto and knocked in Urshela. In the fourth inning, Wallner singled off Cueto and knocked in Urshela.

If we get a similar performance once again, then this 10-1 wager should not be too far out of our grasp.

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