Pirates vs. Twins Pick: How Sharps Are Betting This Monday MLB Matchup


Justin Berl/Getty Images. Pictured: Josh Bell

  • Professional bettors, also known as sharps, have sided with one team in Monday night's Pirates-Twins matchup.
  • Find their pick below, complete with analysis of how they moved the moneyline.

Pirates vs. Twins Odds

Pirates odds +200 [BET NOW]
Twins odds -240 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 9.5 (-108/-113) [BET NOW]
Time 8:10 p.m. ET

Odds via Parx, which offers new customers a 20% profit boost + $500 risk-free wager on their first bet AND your bets automatically sync to the Action app. Learn more about BetSync here.

At +200 (33.3% implied win probability), the Pirates are the second-biggest underdog on Monday’s baseball slate. But just because a team isn’t likely to win doesn’t mean it’s not a smart bet to make.

And based on the activity we’ve seen from sharp bettors thus far, it sure seems as though they’ve found reason to take a chance on Pittsburgh’s high payout.

Pirates vs. Twins Sharp Betting Pick

8:10 p.m. ET | Derek Holland vs. Lewis Thorpe

The Pirates actually opened as even bigger underdogs — up around +215 at most shops. And given that they’re matching up with the 7-2 Twins, they’ve not been all that popular in the betting market. Only 25% of moneyline bettors have taken Pittsburgh, so why has the line moved in that direction?

Even though just one in four bets is landing on the Pirates, they’ve generated an impressive 83% of actual money hitting this line. And while that certainly creates a monetary liability for sportsbooks, it perhaps more importantly reveals that sharp bettors — who are more likely to be the ones making big bets — are taking the underdog.

Confirming that to be the case, two Sports Insights Bet Signals — which track and record instances of market activity that come as a result of sharp action — have been triggered on the Pirates, giving oddsmakers no choice but to bring this line down a bit.

Sharp angle: Pirates (moved from +215 to +200) [Bet the Pirates at +240 with a 20% profit boost at Parx]

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