MLB Strikeout Props Today | Expert Picks for Pablo Lopez, Max Fried, J.P. France, Jordan Wicks
Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: Jordan Wicks
For MLB player props on Friday, April 12, I'm targeting four different starting pitchers whose strikeout numbers show value.
Entering Friday's MLB slate, I'm 14-5 (+8.23u) on strikeout prop picks for the season.
MLB Strikeout Props Today
In the table below, you'll find each of our MLB staff's top player prop picks from today's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 6:40 p.m. | |
| 7:10 p.m. | |
| 7:10 p.m. | |
| 9:40 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Twins vs. Tigers
Pablo Lopez is off to a slow start with just a 19% K-rate after two starts.
However, a lot of his underlying metrics are in line with his 2023 ones, where he had a 29% K-rate, and my model says he has an expected K-rate of 29%, so he should see some positive regression going forward.
The Tigers could be the ideal lineup for him to have a breakout game.
Lopez tends to throw a first-pitch strike at a high rate and the Tigers have the lowest first-pitch swing rate in the league. Therefore, Lopez could get ahead in the count at a much higher rate today.
We could also see some very high winds blowing out today, which means Lopez will likely want to avoid pitching to contact and focus on racking up Ks.
I’m projecting this closer to -150.
Pick: Pablo Lopez Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-106)
Braves vs. Marlins
Max Fried is off to a slow start with just a 19% K-rate after two starts and has a very misleading K/9 of 10.80 after two starts.
His K/9 is the highest it’s been in the last six seasons, but is mainly due to his very unlucky .524 BABIP so far.
Unlike Lopez, Fried's underlying data doesn’t suggest he’s been unlucky to only have a K% of 19%. In fact, I have his expected K% being closer to 14% thanks to having a measly 6.4% swinging-strike rate (by far the lowest rate in his career).
While I don’t expect him to continue with such putrid underlying metrics, it does mean that he’s a pitcher I’m interested in fading right now.
Fried has benefited from his opponents swinging at pitches in the zone at a very low rate through two starts. However, the Marlins have the second-highest zone swing rate, meaning this could make it even tougher for Fried to rack up Ks. This is especially true when considering the Marlins will likely have as many as seven right-handed hitters in the lineup today.
I'm projecting this closer to -170.
Pick: Max Fried Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115)
Rangers vs. Astros
J.P. France has a 17.4% K-rate through two starts, which is in line with his career rate. However, his underlying metrics suggest we could see a K% closer to 22% going forward.
He’s throwing his four-seamer at a lower rate in favor of his cutter/changeup/curve mix. Not only do those three pitches generate a much higher whiff rate, it’s a pitch mix that has also nearly doubled his whiff rate with his fastball (20%) this season.
The Rangers may have as many as six left-handed batters in their lineup today, but France actually has a K-rate 6% higher against LHB in his young career. He’s using his solid changeup/curveball mix against them to get punch outs.
He’s also competing for a rotation spot since Justin Verlander is due back soon, so we will be getting max effort from France and probably no limitations when it comes to his pitch count.
He tends to throw around the edge at a very high rate, so hopefully we get an ump with a bigger K zone here.
I'm projecting him closer to -180.
Pick: J.P. France Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-115)
Cubs vs. Mariners
Jordan Wicks is a pitcher I still want to invest in his overs right now.
His underlying metrics support his elite 30.2% K-rate after two starts as my model has an expected K-rate of 30.4%.
We cashed on his over easily last game, but he struggled with his command early and left a couple more Ks on the table.
The Mariners should be a good matchup for him as they have the fourth-highest whiff rate in the league. And while they may send eight right-handed hitters to the plate against the southpaw today, Wicks has a 36% K-rate against RHB this season compared to just 17% against lefties.
I don’t think that massive reverse platoon split is sustainable, but it does show how much of a weapon his changeup has been against RHB and makes me less worried about the M’s potentially having an extreme RHB lineup today.
T-Mobile Park is always a K-friendly environment for pitchers, so Wicks gets a slight boost from that as well.
I'm projecting this closer to -125.
Pick: Jordan Wicks Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+130)
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