Wilson’s MLB Umpire Betting Guide (6/6): It’s Getaway Thursday Across MLB
Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Bud Black, Marty Foster
- Collin Wilson targets two Thursday MLB games based on umpire trends: Giants-Mets (12:10 p.m. ET) and Rockies-Cubs (2:20 p.m. ET).
MLB officials will always have a say in the final score. Humans do make errors, but in the case of Angel Hernandez, it might be time to actually invest in robot umpires.
Angel Hernandez is just awful. Awful! pic.twitter.com/PyPHLlA5Jc
— Max Wildstein (@MaxWildstein) June 5, 2019
Missed calls on strikes create extra runners on base. That will lead to more runs scored and an eventual trend to the over. That’s the case with Hernandez, as he’s 122-132-9 to the under per SportsInsights. If you dig a bit deeper, the trend to the over is expanded in the summer. Within the months of June, July and August, Hernandez has an under record of 45-66-5 per our data at Bet Labs.
Maybe the kids are out of school or it’s the heat, but Hernandez is a bankable over during the summer months. Keep an eye out for the location of crew chief Dana DeMuth during the summer months, as Hernandez will have a payday for everyone until the kids return to school in September.
Before diving into the analysis below, be sure to check out colleague Danny Donahue’s complementary piece about the importance of monitoring the boys in blue. This column will integrate advanced stats on projected pitchers and hitting lineups to help get wagers to the window. As always, check the Action App for my latest MLB bets.
Find all MLB umpire assignments and betting records here.
Umpire Betting Trends
San Francisco Giants at New York Mets
Umpire: Victor Carapazza
- Home Record: 129-124 (51.0% -13.82 units)
- Under Record: 135-103 (56.7% 26.75 units)
- Odds: New York Mets -154
- Total: 8
- Time: 12:10 p.m. ET
- Projected Wind: Inward from left field, 8 mph
You could not find a better definition of a getaway game when it comes to San Francisco.
The Giants will compete at Citi Field on Wednesday night, only to turn around and have first pitch at noon on Thursday. The Giants will then jet back home to the West Coast to face long time nemesis Clayton Kershaw on Friday night.
San Francisco’s level of interest in this game should be low.
That works well with umpire Victor Carapazza, who has the under hit more than 56% of the time. If Hernandez’s summer rate we laid out above was revealing, consider that Carapazza is 50-33-6 (60.2%) to the under in the months of June and July in his career.
Both Zach Wheeler and Shaun Anderson are right-handed pitchers, which could make for a light hitting day. San Francisco is 27th in wRC+ and wOBA against righties. The Mets have their own issues against righties, ranking 23rd in ISO and support the second-largest ground ball rate in MLB at 47.2%.
Blue Bet: Under 8
Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs
Umpire: Marty Foster
- Home Record: 226-206 (52.3% -20.21 units)
- Under Record: 223-192 (53.7% 20.66 units)
- Odds: Cubs -135
- Total: TBD
- Time: 2:20 p.m. ET
- Projected Wind: Inward from center field, 8 mph
The wind is blowing in at Wrigley for daytime getaway game, what more could a bettor ask for?
Having umpire Marty Foster helps, as the official is over 20 units in his career to the under with an average runs per game at 9. If there’s an umpire who wants to get home quick, it’s Foster.
— Umpire Auditor (@UmpireAuditor) May 30, 2019
Jose Quintana toes the rubber for the Cubbies, as the southpaw should have plenty of success against the Rockies. Colorado, which will jet to New York after this game, has bottom 10 splits against lefties in wRC+, strikeout percentage and hard-hit percentage.
Jon Gray could be of help to the under, too, as the Rockies starter has three quality starts over his past five appearances. In his one game pitching at Wrigley, Gray gave up just one unearned over seven innings.
Blue Bet: Under