Wilson’s MLB Umpire Betting Guide (5/21): Wind Assisting Blue In Multiple Parks

Wilson’s MLB Umpire Betting Guide (5/21): Wind Assisting Blue In Multiple Parks article feature image

Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo, umpire Ron Kulpa

  • Collin Wilson targets two MLB games based on umpire trends: Braves-Giants (9:45 p.m. ET) and Diamondbacks-Padres (10:10 p.m. ET).

Not only does Tuesday feature a full slate of strong umpire trends, but Mother Nature will be out in full force.

Chicago might be known as the “Windy City,” but wind will play a factor for multiple teams. Tools such as SportsInsights can help display strong winds blowing in at Wrigley. It can also show that any fly ball hitters to leftfield will hit a stiff 15 mph wind at Citi Field.

Arlington, San Francisco, San Diego and even the nice confines of Orange County along Interstate 5 will have double-digit winds. Combined with a few advanced stats around line drive and fly balls, Tuesday should be a beautiful day for wagering.

Before diving into the analysis below, be sure to check out colleague Danny Donahue’s complementary piece about the importance of monitoring the boys in blue. This column will integrate advanced stats on projected pitchers and hitting lineups to help get wagers to the window. As always, check the Action App for my latest MLB bets.

Find all MLB umpire assignments and betting records here.

Umpire Betting Trends

Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants

Umpire: Lance Barrett

  • Home Record: 108-97, 52.7% (-10.42 units)
  • Under Record: 87-102, 46.0% (-21.08 units)
  • Odds: Braves -113
  • Total: 7.5
  • Time: 9:45 p.m. EST
  • Projected Wind: Out to Right Center, 20 mph

Measuring in at a whopping 421 feet comes the right-centerfield fence at Pac Bell AT&T Oracle Park. Wind speed pushing 20 mph towards $19.25 Russian River beer row behind the bleachers is exactly what we need for an over.

Umpire Lance Barrett trends towards the over, with an average runs per game at 8.8 via SportsInsights. In case you haven’t notice, the Giants’ bats have started to heat up.

Since May 1, San Francisco is fifth in the league in wRC+ versus righties with an ISO ranking of fourth. Over that time frame both the Braves and Giants have ranked among the top seven in hard hit and line drive percentage against right handers. Combined with an umpire who leans to overs as well as winds pushing out, Tuesday could be a long day for Julio Teheran and Shaun Anderson.

Blue Bet: Over 7.5