The Philadelphia Phillies host the New York Mets on September 8, 2025. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on NBCS-PH.
Find my MLB betting preview and Mets vs Phillies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Mets vs Phillies Prediction
- Mets vs Phillies pick: Mets ML (-120; Play to -140)
My Mets vs Phillies best bet is on the Mets moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Phillies Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 8.5 -120o / 100u | -120 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -165 | 8.5 -120o / 100u | +100 |
Mets vs Phillies Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Nolan McLean (NYM) | Stat | RHP Aaron Nola (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-0 | W-L | 3-8 |
| 0.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 1.37/2.45 | ERA /xERA | 6.78/4.91 |
| 2.42/2.74 | FIP / xFIP | 5.05/3.85 |
| 0.76 | WHIP | 1.51 |
| 22.1% | K-BB% | 16.0% |
| 67.8% | GB% | 40.8% |
| 113 | Stuff+ | 106 |
| 98 | Location+ | 103 |
Sean Paul’s Mets vs Phillies Preview
New York Mets Betting Preview: Offense Catching Fire at the Right Time
The only problem with Nolan McLean is wondering why the Mets didn’t bring him up earlier. He’s been about as good as a rookie can be through four outings, posting a 4-0 record with a 1.37 ERA. He also features a 2.42 xERA and a 2.45 FIP, which is a sign that McLean is a force to be reckoned with.
It's fairly prototypical for pitchers rising through a minor league system to focus on the sweeper/sinker combo, and McLean excels at using them. He generates swings and misses on his sweeper, as he's punched out 6+ hitters in each outing, while sporting a 66% ground-ball rate. He'll be a terrific major league hurler as long as he maintains his ground-ball rate.
New York has been one of the best offensive teams in baseball for a couple of months. Over its last 21 games, it leads baseball with a 159 wRC+, which is 24 points better than the second-best squad.
The Mets of that time boasted the second-most home runs (40), the third-best strikeout rate (18.8%), the fifth-best walk rate (10.5%), and the best batting average (.308).
Juan Soto looks like the guy the Mets backed up the Brinks truck for. His hot streak has totally transformed this offense. In his last three weeks, the 700-million-dollar man, Soto, has a 224 wRC+ with eight homers and a 24% walk rate. He and Francisco Lindor each have a wRC+ better than 200 in that span, while key contributions from Mark Vientos, Brandon Nimmo, and Brett Baty have helped the rest of the offense.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview: Nola's Struggles Put Phillies at Risk
While the Mets have a rising starter on their end, the Phillies have a veteran who looks past his prime. That is Aaron Nola, who has a 6.78 ERA in 13 outings this season. You could argue he's been unlucky, as his xERA is a 4.91 and his FIP is a 5.05. But no matter how you slice it, Nola has been a total nightmare.
He's become one of the most home-run-prone pitchers in the league, allowing 1.96 HR/9.
I had hoped Nola would bounce back after missing three months due to injury. But he's looked even worse since returning, allowing 4+ runs in three of his four outings since being activated. Putting Nola against one of MLB's most prolific power-hitting squads is a recipe for disaster, given his home-run issues.
Giving credit where it's due, the Phillies' offense is also elite. Over their last 21 games, the Phillies rank fourth in MLB with a 132 wRC, while keeping their strikeout rate to a solid 20.8% and walking 8.8% of the time.
All it took for the Phillies' offense to explode is getting big production from Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, and Bryce Harper. Each of the three big bats in Philadelphia's lineup has a wRC+ better than 120 over that span.
Mets vs Phillies Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Mets have owned the Phillies this year, recording a 7-2 record. New York has struggled with non-Philadelphia teams, which is why the Mets sit seven games behind them in the NL East standings.
While I think the Phillies are the better team from top to bottom, I can't ignore the Mets success over their divisional foe. Plus, McLean over Nola is a major boost in the Mets favor. I'll look to fade Nola at any point possible and back a scary good offense in the process.
Pick: Mets ML (-120, Fanatics; Play to -140)
Mets vs Phillies Betting Trends
