The Philadelphia Phillies host the New York Mets on September 11, 2025. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FOX.
The Phillies have won the first three games of this series, and the Mets will try to avoid the sweep tonight with David Peterson on the mound against Philadelphia's Jesus Luzardo.
Find my MLB betting preview and Mets vs Phillies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Mets vs Phillies Prediction
- Mets vs Phillies pick: Under 8.5 (-114)
My Mets vs Phillies best bet is Under 8.5 total runs in this game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Phillies Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -181 | 8.5 -109o / -114u | +113 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +148 | 8.5 -109o / -114u | -137 |
Mets vs Phillies Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP David Peterson (NYM) | Stat | LHP Jesus Luzardo (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-5 | W-L | 13-6 |
| 3.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 4.4 |
| 3.72 / 4.27 | ERA / xERA | 4.01 / 3.49 |
| 3.35 / 3.66 | FIP / xFIP | 3.01 / 3.39 |
| 1.32 | WHIP | 1.29 |
| 12.2 | K-BB% | 19.7 |
| 55.6 | GB% | 42.8 |
| 89 | Stuff+ | 102 |
| 103 | Location+ | 110 |
Mets vs Phillies Preview
After a few rough months, Jesus Luzardo has bounced back in a great way. The Phillies starter had a 3.12 ERA in August.
He will face the Mets, who are struggling to produce lately, with 2.57 runs per game in their last seven games.
David Peterson will start for New York, and he has a 3.66 ERA on the road, a bit better than his split at home (3.78).
For this southpaws' pitching duel, our Bet Labs system recommends the under.
This system targets unders in MLB series games (Game 2 or later) where both teams have winning records, suggesting quality pitching and competitive matchups.
However, public betting leans toward the over — likely expecting fireworks between top teams — which creates contrarian value on the under.
By capitalizing on low public support for the under (≤35%), the strategy fades public perception in favor of market inefficiencies, especially when bettors overestimate offensive output late in a series.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-114, DraftKings)
