The Boston Red Sox host the New York Yankees on April 21, 2026. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on YES.
The Red Sox are favored by -126 on the moneyline and by +1.5 on the run line. The Yankees are +104 on the moneyline and -1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Yankees vs Red Sox prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction
- Yankees vs Red Sox Pick: No Gil Win, Roman Anthony Over 0.5 HRR, Ben Rice Over 0.5 Strikeouts
My Yankees vs Red Sox best bet is a three-leg Same Game Parlay: Luis Gil to not record a win, Roman Anthony to record over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs, and Ben Rice to record over 0.5 strikeouts. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Yankees vs Red Sox Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +165 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +104 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -202 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -126 |
- Yankees vs Red Sox moneyline: Yankees +104, Red Sox -126
- Yankees vs Red Sox over/under: 8.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Yankees vs Red Sox spread: Yankees -1.5 (+165), Red Sox +1.5 (-202)
Yankees vs Red Sox Probable Pitchers
| RHP Luis Gil (NYY) | Stat | LHP Connelly Early (BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | W-L | 1-0 |
| -0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 7.00/6.42 | ERA / xERA | 2.29/5.24 |
| 9.36/5.25 | FIP / xFIP | 3.59/4.32 |
| 1.44 | WHIP | 1.27 |
| 4.9% | K-BB% | 11.9% |
| 48.1% | GB% | 38.5% |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 100 |
| 89 | Location+ | 92 |
Yankees vs Red Sox MLB Betting Preview
New York Yankees Betting Preview
It's another Luis Gil night for the Yankees as they try to keep things together until the return of Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon. Gil had that really nice 2024 season for the Yankees with a strong ERA across 152 innings. It wasn't believable then (12.1% BB%, 1.19 WHIP), and it's been even less believable since then.
He continues to struggle with strike-throwing. His 42.7% Ball% is near the worst marks among MLB SPs, and it's unsurprisingly turned into another walk rate north of 12%. Back in 2024, he salvaged his season with getting a bunch of strikeouts.
This year – not the case. He's at a sub-18% K% with a career-worst 9.9% SwStr%. This guy is a bad pitcher in most facets of the game.
The key for scoring on Gil is to let the guy help you out. Let him walk a few and hope somebody can deliver a knock-out extra base hit.
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview
I really like this spot for Roman Anthony. He has just a 5.4% SwStr% and a massive .501 xwOBA in his career against right-handed pitching similar to what Luis Gil offers.
The young outfielder is off to a slow start this year (.703 OPS, one homer), but he's seeing the ball very well of late. He drew three walks yesterday and has five in his last three games. He'll be on base tonight, and if Gil will give him something to hit – he's likely to punish it.
Pitching for the Red Sox is Connelly Early. He hasn't looked quite as sharp as he did last year in his short MLB stint, but a 2.29 ERA with just one homer allowed should have Red Sox fans and bettors feeling pretty good about him.
The key for Early is the depth of pitch mix. He throws six different pitches, and they're all pretty good. He has been absolutely dominant against left-handed hitters in his career, and that's not a surprise when you watch his delivery and all of the different pitches he's throwing at these guys. The pitching advantage in this one surely goes to the home team.
Yankees vs Red Sox Pick, Betting Analysis
I'm not a moneyline better, but -126 on the Red Sox looks too cheap to me. But that's not where my recommendation is coming from. I like to stack together 2-3 big favorites in the player props market to make an even-money bet, and we have a good opportunity to do that in this one.
We're betting on three things:
- Luis Gil's terrible command
- Roman Anthony's good matchup
- Connelly Early's dominance against lefties
For leg one: There's not a way (on DraftKings, anyway) to bet on Gil for two walks. I can access his poorness through a "no" bet on getting a win: No Luis Gil Win -365
For leg two: Let's make this real easy for Anthony. He might walk 2-3 times again, so we want to make sure a run scored can win us this leg. Roman Anthony Over 0.5 H+R+RBI (-356)
For leg three: Everybody loves Ben Rice, but there is a reason they've been somewhat hesitant to start him against lefties. I think his play so far demands he be in the lineup tonight, but it's possible this leg gets voided once that lineup comes out.
Here it is though, Rice has a 28% K% against left-handed pitching dating back to last year, and Early is one of the toughest lefties he'll have seen. Ben Rice Over 0.5 Strikeouts (-455)
Parlay odds: -185
Pick: No Gil Win, Roman Anthony Over 0.5 HRR, Ben Rice Over 0.5 Strikeouts (-185 on DraftKings)
