The Tampa Bay Rays host the New York Yankees on April 10, 2026. First pitch from Tropicana Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on YES.
The Yankees are favored by -142 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Rays are +120 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Yankees vs Rays prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Yankees vs Rays Prediction
- Yankees vs Rays Picks: Rays ML (+120 or better) | Over 8.5 (-110 or Better)
My Yankees vs Rays best bets are on Tampa Bay to win outright and the over 8.5 total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Yankees vs Rays Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +120 | 8.5 -102o / -120u | -142 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -144 | 8.5 -102o / -120u | +120 |
- Yankees vs Rays spread: Yankees -1.5 (+120), Rays +1.5 (-144)
- Yankees vs Rays over/under: 8.5 (-102o / -120u)
- Yankees vs Rays moneyline: Yankees -142, Rays +120
Yankees vs Rays Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Luis Gil (NYY) | Stat | LHP Steven Matz (TBR) |
|---|---|---|
| Season Debut | W-L | 2-0 |
| — | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| — | ERA /xERA | 4.09/3.47 |
| — | FIP / xFIP | 3.33/3.52 |
| — | WHIP | 1.00 |
| — | K-BB% | 16.3% |
| — | GB% | 33.3% |
| — | Stuff+ | 93 |
| — | Location+ | 109 |
Yankees vs Rays Picks
Historically, the Tampa Bay Rays are among the most profitable home underdogs in our database, generating a 7.4% ROI since 2005 (230-243), surpassed only by the St. Louis Cardinals (+9.1%) in ROI, and the Colorado Rockies (+$3,873 for a consistent $100 bettor) in net profit.
More importantly, all of their production relative to market has come as home underdogs in divisional games (132-126, +14.4% ROI), rather than non-divisional contests (98-117, -1.0% ROI).
The Rays are just 10-21 over that span against the Baltimore Orioles (-30.6% ROI) but have cleaned up against the Boston Red Sox (41-35, +22.2% ROI), New York Yankees (46-45, +17.2% ROI), and Toronto Blue Jays (35-25, +23.7% ROI); being the least heralded team in a division of big name clubs with giant payrolls has led to value on Tampa Bay at the Trop more often than not, but particularly at home against AL East rivals.
The Rays have almost become an automatic click for me in these spots, and they have a projected starting pitching advantage with Steven Matz facing former AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil.
Gil's velocity (95.3 mph, down from 96.3 mph career), stuff (98 Stuff+, down from 106 last season), and underlying indicators (4.94 xERA, 5.65 xFIP, 3.3% K-BB%) were worrying last season after suffering a lat strain. He didn't make the Yankees rotation this spring, and struggled in his long Triple-A appearance (4 2/3 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 4 BB, 6 K) before getting recalled.
Gil's projections (FIP range from 4.49 to 4.89; K-BB% range from 8.9% to 12.9%) aren't in the neighborhood of his 2024 results (3.76 xERA, 4.36 xFIP, 14.8% K-BB%) – they are far more reflective of his injury-marred 2025 campaign. But there's also nothing to suggest that he's suddenly recovered and put that injury behind him, either.
I'd also expect the Rays to put a ton of pressure on Gil on the basepaths (permitted 8 of 11 steal attempts for his career), which could lead to additional walks from a pitcher with shaky command (career 12.1% walk rate).
Steven Matz was a rare Rays' multi-year signing, following an effective couple of seasons in relief (3.38 xERA, 3.71 xFIP, 15.5% K-BB% in 2025). His stuff (down from 104 to 93; velocity down from 94.5 to 92.5) won't hold up as well in the rotation as it did in the bullpen, but Matz still projects as the more reliable arm in the starting pitching matchup (projected FIP range 3.73 to 4.38; K-BB% range from 12.9% to 15.5%).
Pick: Rays ML (+120 or better) | Over 8.5 (-110 or Better)
