The San Diego Padres host the Los Angeles Dodgers on June 10, 2025. First pitch from PETCO Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on SDPA.
Find my Padres vs Dodgers betting analysis below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Dodgers vs Padres Prediction
- Dodgers vs Padres picks: F5 U4.5 (-118 FanDuel)
My Dodgers vs Padres best bet is for the First 5 Innings to go Under 4.5 total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Dodgers vs Padres Odds
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -200 | 8 -120o / -102u | +100 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +166 | 8 -120o / -102u | -120 |
Dodgers vs Padres Betting Analysis
Last night’s game between the Dodgers and Padres ended with a 15-run explosion that shattered the total by 6.5 runs and provided a prime setup for one of the clearest public overreactions of the season.
Five runs were scored within the first two innings, but expecting a repeat performance is a risky assumption, and the market movement backs that up. Despite over 95% of both public bets and public dollars coming in on the over, most books have adjusted the full-game total downward, from a juiced over 8.5 to an even 8. That type of shift is rarely driven by casual bettors. This is a clear sign of respected sharp action on the under.
One of our top-performing F5 (First 5 Innings) under systems is active on this game. We shared this system earlier in the year, and it's quietly become one of the strongest short-inning under signals in our database with a 48-11 (81%) season record. The system triggers when:
The F5 under is juiced at -120 or more on most books
Wind is under 10 mph
The total moves down by any amount
Why does it work?
This system capitalizes on early sharp influence in low-wind environments where the books are defending the under with juice. When totals drop — especially in games with underwhelming starting pitching — it usually signals respected under money coming in, not casual overreaction.
Let’s look at the matchup.
Dylan Cease starts for San Diego. His 4.72 ERA and 1.31 WHIP don’t jump off the page, but that’s the point. He's not a dominant ace, yet the books are showing him real respect. On the other side, the Dodgers start Matt Sauer, a low-profile name with only 20 2/3 MLB innings pitched, but an impressive 3.05 ERA and 0.92 WHIP.
Casual bettors saw a high-scoring game yesterday and assume there will be more fireworks today. They see a mediocre Cease and an unknown Sauer and immediately look to the over, but sportsbooks aren’t buying it.
San Diego opened around even odds and has moved to around -120 favorites despite getting just over 30% of the bets and handle. That tells us sharp bettors and the books believe in Cease to limit damage, and in the Padres to respond after last night’s loss.
Backing this idea further:
There are currently 20 under systems active on the full game total, covering factors like:
Totals that have moved down
Both teams are above .500
Less than 40% of public bets are on the under
Average starting pitchers
No wind is blowing out
While each of these systems lands in the 56–60% win rate range, their value lies in volume and long-term stability. When these types of systems stack up, they help us break free from reactionary betting and focus on sharper fundamentals.
The public is leaning hard into the over. The market says otherwise. With heavy sharp support, systemic backing, and mispriced perceptions, the F5 Under 4.5 is the smartest angle on the board tonight.
Pick: Dodgers vs Padres F5 U4.5 (-118 FanDuel)
Moneyline
I will not be betting on either side of the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I also don't see an edge on either team to cover the run line.
Over/Under
As mentioned, I see value in the First 5 Innings Over/Under.
Dodgers vs Padres Betting Trends
Dodgers vs Padres starts at 9:40 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, live from PETCO Park. The game will be broadcast on SDPA.
Dodgers vs Padres Weather
