The San Diego Padres (38-28) host the Los Angeles Dodgers (40-28) on Wednesday, June 11, 2025. First pitch from PETCO Park is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on SportsNet LA and Padres TV.
The Dodgers and Padres are set to play the rubber match of their three-game series on Wednesday afternoon after San Diego went off for 11 runs in the middle game. The Dodgers enter as -156 moneyline favorites with the game total at 9.5 (-112o / -108u).
Continue below to find my Dodgers vs Padres predictions and picks for Wednesday.
Dodgers vs Padres Predictions, Picks
- Dodgers vs Padres pick: Over 9.5 (play to 10.5)
My Dodgers vs Padres best bet is the game total to go over 9.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Dodgers vs Padres Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +108 | 9.5 -112o / -108u | -156 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -131 | 9.5 -112o / -108u | +128 |
Dodgers vs Padres Projected Starting Pitchers
| Justin Wrobleski (LAD) | Stat | Randy Vasquez (SD) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | W-L | 3-4 |
| 0.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.1 |
| 7.20/5.13 | ERA /xERA | 3.69/5.83 |
| 5.14/3.97 | FIP / xFIP | 5.34/5.68 |
| 1.40 | WHIP | 1.45 |
| 10.9% | K-BB% | 1.1% |
| 48.8% | GB% | 41.3% |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 94 | Location+ | 97 |
Dodgers vs Padres Preview, Prediction
Dodgers Betting Preview
As the Dodgers look to piece together a rotation using organizational depth, it'll lead to more starts for Justin Wrobleski.
Wrobleski, a 26-year-old lefty, sports a 7.20 ERA while allowing 21 baserunners in 15 innings. The walk issues carry over from the minors — where Wrobleski walked 4.87 batters per nine in Oklahoma City.
He's started two games for the big league club in 2025. In one, he allowed eight runs through five innings in a loss to the Nationals and he suffered the same fate versus the Cardinals, allowing five runs in five innings.
On the bright side, the Dodgers' bullpen is close to full health with Michael Kopech and Kirby Yates back from the IL. However, Dave Roberts has every reason to play it safe to avoid further injury to the back-end pen arms.
For all the issues the Dodgers' rotation has, the lineup is flawless. In a span from May 15th to now, Los Angeles ranks second in MLB with a 121 wRC+, while ranking fifth with a 9.7 BB% and third with 34 home runs.
We know the trio of former MVPs can mash. Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Mookie Betts rarely slump. But the leader in wRC+ for the Dodgers over the past 20 games is Max Muncy with a 202 wRC+.
Good luck holding the Dodgers' offense down if Muncy is aiding the big three.
Padres Betting Preview
There might not be a pitcher due for regression more than Padres right-hander Randy Vasquez. He's somehow managed to maintain a 3.69 ERA, but his xERA is 5.83 and his FIP is 5.34. Vasquez doesn't have swing-and-miss stuff, punching out 5.26 batters per nine compared to a robust 4.83 BB/9.
Last season, Vasquez posted a 72.2 strand rate and he's at 81.4% this year. That's the main reason for his lower ERA, but it's not sustainable and a team like the Dodgers can make him pay.
Vasquez also has one of the ugliest baseball-savant pages you can imagine. He ranks in the 15th percentile or worse in barrel rate, walk rate, strikeout, chase, and whiff rate. Not pretty and he's due for a pretty severe blow-up outing.
I'd like to page anybody in San Diego except Manny Machado to hit the baseball. Quietly, Machado has been one of the sport's hottest hitters for the last month, hitting .342 with a .985 OPS in his last 30 games.
Since June 1st, the Padres have been one of the worst-hitting teams in MLB (it spans longer), but they have a 75 wRC+ in nine June games. They have four home runs and a .089 isolated power — both are second-worst in MLB in June. The four homers are all by Machado. Nobody else has gone yard and that'll have to change for the Padres' offense to get hot again.
The talent is there. Machado, Fernando Tatis, and Jackson Merrillare are leading the charge. There's plenty of reason to buy into San Diego's offense digging itself out of this hole — they showed what they can do on Tuesday, dropping 11 runs in a blowout win.
Plus, facing Wrobleski and an overworked Dodgers pen can't hurt.
Dodgers vs Padres Prediction, Betting Analysis
The over feels like a smash play here.
Neither pitcher is trustworthy and both walk a ton of batters. That'll lead to more baserunners and more chances to score runs and push the total over.
Wrobleski and Vasquez should be gone from the game by the fifth inning — at the latest.
Pick: Over 9.5 (play to 10.5)
Moneyline
I have no bet on the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I have no bet on the spread.
Over/Under
I like the game total to go over.
Dodgers vs Padres Betting Trends
Dodgers vs Padres Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Petco Park in San Diego, Calif. |
| Date: | Wednesday, June 11 |
| Time: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | SportsNet LA, Padres TV; MLB.TV |
