“Payoff Pitch” | MLB Best Bets, Picks for Rangers vs Tigers, Angels vs Rays (April 16)
(Photo by Paul Rutherford/Getty Images) Pictured: Mike Trout, Taylor Ward
Every team in MLB is in action Tuesday night, and our baseball betting experts broke down their MLB best bets on the latest edition of the Payoff Pitch podcast.
Their MLB best bets tonight and the latest episode of the podcast are below.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 1:10 p.m. | Tigers F5 (+100)+Full Game ML (+105) | |
| 6:50 p.m. | Aaron Civale Under 5.5 Strikeouts |
Tigers F5 (+100)+Full Game ML (+105) vs. Rangers
1:10 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV
By Sean Zerillo
Casey Mize is a guy I have discussed a few times this season. He had a great spring training, and his fastball velocity has already gone up since the start of the season. He debuted at 94.9 miles per hour this year and crept up to 96.7 in his last start. His 122 Stuff+ ranks ninth of 150 pitchers who have thrown at least five innings thus far.
On the other side of the diamond, Jon Gray stopped throwing his sweeper two years ago and has gotten substantially worse results, with his Stuff+ dropping off significantly on his secondary pitches. He is a greatly reduced pitcher, and I have Mize graded much higher in this matchup. The Tigers' offense struggles mightily and will have to win lower-score contests, as they may only plate three or four guys a game. Nevertheless, I will continue to bet on the Tigers this season.
Aaron Civale Under 5.5 Strikeouts vs. Angels
6:50 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV
Aaron Civale's numbers have been very interesting since he has joined the Rays.
He has been spamming fastballs up in the zone, a Rays' specialty. I think we are starting to see some regression to what he has always been. I think the optimism for him is warranted this year and I think he settles into that 3.75 ERA range by the end of the season. His strikeout rate has seen a significant decline this year though, as his career swinging strike rate is 9.8%, but this year it is just 8%.
He is facing an Angels team that is pretty average at taking first strike pitches and strikeout rate. This is not as bad of a strikeout lineup as we're used to seeing in LA though. I think a total of 5.5 is a little too high, and Civale will be a less than a strikeout an inning type of guy.
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