The Colorado Rockies host the Philadelphia Phillies on May 19, 2025. First pitch from Coors Field is scheduled for 8:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on NBC Sports Philadelphia and Rockies.TV.
The Phillies made relatively easy work of the Pirates over the weekend and will look to carry the momentum into a series against the dumpster fire that is the Rockies. The Phillies enter as -270 ML favorites with the game total set at 10.
Continue reading for my Phillies vs Rockies prediction for Monday night.
My Phillies vs Rockies Prediction
- Phillies vs Rockies picks: Over 10 (play to 10.5)
My Phillies vs Rockies best bet is the game total to go over 10. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Rockies Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 10.5 +110o / -130u | -270 |
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 +105 | 10.5 +110o / -130u | +220 |
Phillies vs Rockies Projected Starting Pitchers
| Kyle Freeland (COL) | Stat | Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-6 | W-L | 4-1 |
| 1.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.7 |
| 6.15/4.66 | ERA /xERA | 2.91/3.11 |
| 3.30/3.47 | FIP / xFIP | 3.66/3.13 |
| 1.59 | WHIP | 1.22 |
| 13% | K-BB% | 19.1% |
| 50% | GB% | 56.4% |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 114 |
| 102 | Location+ | 95 |
Sean Paul’s Phillies vs Rockies Preview
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview: Red-Hot Bats
While he’s often overshadowed by Zack Wheeler, left-hander Cristopher Sanchez has developed into one of the most consistent pitchers in MLB.
He’s made a huge stride into being a strikeout pitcher, in addition to being one of the sport’s premier ground-ball pitchers.
Sanchez struck out just 7.58 batters per nine last year; he is punching out 10.80 per nine this year. There’s no shortage of traffic Sanchez has to navigate through, though.
He currently has a 1.22 WHIP, aided by a career-high 3.53 BB/9. Sanchez has an elevated walk and HR per nine numbers this year, which is likely the reason for his 3.66 FIP compared to a 2.91 ERA.
The Phillies' bats have caught fire in May, posting an outstanding 117 wRC+. Putting Philadelphia's bats down is difficult, as it strikes out just 19% of the time and walks 8.5% of the time. That'll lead to pitchers leaving things to fate and hoping for soft contact.
It's a tad early for it to be the month of Schwarber. That usually happens around June or July, but Kyle Schwarber has a 177 wRC+ in May with an insane .345 ISO and just a 17% K rate. He's the type of player who can tally four of five RBI alone to help push the total over.
Schwarber is one of six Philadelphia hitters with a wRC+ better than 100 this month.
After an ugly first six weeks of the season, Alec Bohm is hitting over .350 with a 161 wRC+. He's a huge key to the Phillies' offense, and it's no coincidence that their offense is clicking more than it did in April.
Also worth noting: the Phillies' bullpen is far from tip-top shape with Sunday's news of lefty reliever Jose Alvarado receiving an 80-game PED suspension. That takes arguably the best arm in the Phillies' bullpen out of the equation.
Colorado Rockies Betting Preview: Nightmare in the Rockies
If you wanted to make a list of the five worst MLB starting pitchers in 2025, no list is complete without including the longest-tenured Rockies player — Kyle Freeland.
Once an All-Star and Cy Young contender, Freeland enters this outing with an 0-6 record and a 6.15 ERA.
Now, I'll be contradictory to what I typically believe when betting on baseball. Oftentimes, numbers don't lie. If a pitcher has a FIP nearly three runs better than their ERA, I'll likely look to back the pitchers.
This case is unique: Freeland's FIP is 3.30 and his xFIP is 3.47. The problem is less about Freeland, who ranks in the 77th percentile with a 50% ground-ball rate.
It's more about Colorado's porous team defense that ranks 29th in MLB with a -31 DRS.
Freeland is also noticeably worse in Colorado. That's a pretty obvious statement, but I am a numbers guy after all. In five starts at Coors Field, Freeland's ERA sits at 9.77 compared to 4.25 on the road.
Colorado has four hitters with a wRC+ at 100 or better, led by Ryan McMahon at 190 and Hunter Goodman at 135.
The drop-off after the top five hitters to the rest is pretty drastic, but we'll hope some Coors magic sprinkles onto the bats of the struggling Rockies.
Phillies vs Rockies Prediction, Betting Analysis
I'm shocked to see the total sitting at just 10.
I have to roll with the over as the Rockies love high-scoring games and the Phillies could crack double-digit scoring numbers on their own.
Ride the runs.
Pick: Over 10 (play to 10.5)
