The Washington Nationals host the Philadelphia Phillies on August 17, 2025. First pitch from Nationals Park is scheduled for 11:35 a.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on Roku.
The Nationals are one win from winning three of four games against the Phillies. In order to win the series, Washington will need to overcome the odds, entering as +144 ML underdogs, to the Phillies as -176 favorites.
Find my MLB betting preview and Phillies vs Nationals prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Phillies vs Nationals Prediction
- Phillies vs Nationals picks: Phillies -1.5 (play to -125)
My Phillies vs Nationals best bet is Phillies -1.5 (play to -125). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Nationals Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 9.5 -105o / -115u | -165 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 9.5 -105o / -115u | +140 |
Phillies vs Nationals Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Aaron Nola (PHI) | Stat | LHP Mitchell Parker (LHP) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-7 | W-L | 7-13 |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.1 |
| 6.16/5.12 | ERA /xERA | 5.55/5.72 |
| 5.04/3.65 | FIP / xFIP | 4.74/5.11 |
| 1.51 | WHIP | 1.46 |
| 3.3 | K-BB% | 1.7 |
| 44.6% | GB% | 36.3 |
| 102 | Stuff+ | 88 |
| 112 | Location+ | 102 |
Sean Paul’s Phillies vs Nationals Preview
Washington Nationals Betting Preview: Relying on Two Bats
The Nationals are eyeing down a series win versus the NL East leaders. They snagged two wins in low-scoring games on Thursday and Saturday, and hope for another to close out the series. It won't be easy, though.
That's because Mitchell Parker is an auto-fade for me against good lineups. The 25-year-old left-hander owns a 5.55 ERA, a 5.72 xERA, and a 4.74 FIP. Plus, Parker strikes out 5.93 batters per nine, while walking 3.45 per nine and allowing 1.20 homers.
Opponents also have an xBA of .300 versus Parker, putting him in the 2nd percentile. And those xBA numbers are aided by hard-hit balls, as Parker ranks in the 1st percentile in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
Just look at Parker's last three outings if you want to know how ugly this can get. He allowed eight runs in a loss to Milwaukee, four in five innings against the Athletics, and five in 5 1/3 against Kansas City. All of which were multi-run losses for Washington.
Offensively, the Nationals live and die by CJ Abrams and James Wood putting up big numbers. That hasn't happened of late, and in turn, Washington ranks 24th in wRC+ since the All-Star break. Wood cracked a two-RBI hit that ended up as the only two runs in Saturday's game, but he's hitting .190 with a 38.2% K-rate in his last 25 games.
In that span, Washington ranks in the bottom ten in batting average, home runs, walk rate, and strikeout rate. The scoring just hasn't been enough, which is why the Nationals are sitting alone in last place in the NL East.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview: Nola Starting Anew
The last time Aaron Nola pitched was over three months ago. It’s probably easy to forget just how much Nola struggled before spending the majority of the year on the injured list. Before going down on May 14th, Nola pitched to a 6.10 ERA in 49 ⅓ innings over nine starts.
That said, maybe the long layoff is what Nola needed to right the ship. He looked much improved during three rehab outings at AAA, posting a 2.19 ERA in 17 ⅓ innings. Yes, it’s the minors, but if he got crushed by minor league hitters, this is a totally different discussion.
And let's face it, the Phillies need prime Nola more than ever. With Zack Wheeler hitting the injured list on Saturday due to a blood clot near his shoulder, the Phillies need everyone else to step up, and Nola is no exception.
In a fairly lifeless effort on Saturday, the Phillies scored zero runs to lose for a second time in three days. That's been the norm of late in Philadelphia, as it's scored two or fewer runs in four or five games and zero runs twice.
Even with the struggles, the Phillies have the ninth-best wRC+(106) since the All-Star break. That's a longer 26-game sample, so I put more stock into those 26 games than an ugly five games.
What the Phillies do well is hit for power, which makes them a bit boom-or-bust. I think we can chalk some of the offensive ups-and-downs to whether the Phillies are hitting homers or not. In the 26 games since the break, the Phillies are tied for first in MLB with 43 homers and a .211 ISO, which ranks second-best.
Kyle Schwarber has carried the Phillies' offense, hitting 13 homers in his last 26 games with a 186 wRC+. And if you think facing a lefty will limit Schwarber, think again. The MVP Candidate has a higher OPS versus lefties than righties. It's a prime day for Schwarber to do damage.
Phillies vs Nationals Prediction, Betting Analysis
I definitely want to fade Parker, as I stated above. However, laying -176 juice just isn't worth recommending for me, but I think the Phillies win, so feel free to take that if you don't mind the juice.
For me, I'm rolling with Philadelphia -1.5 at -110 and play it to -125. I think the Phillies cruise to an easy win on Sunday, as Parker allows 5+ runs again, while Nola gets on track in his first outing since coming back from the IL.
Pick: Phillies -1.5 (play to -125)
Moneyline
No play.
Run Line (Spread)
Play the Phillies to -125 on the run line.
Over/Under
No play.
