Phillies vs Braves Odds, Pick | MLB Betting Prediction (Saturday, May 27)
Photo by Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images. Pictured: Zack Wheeler.
- The NL East rivalry series between the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves continues on Saturday at Truist Park.
- The Phillies enter this game as slight underdogs, much to the surprise of MLB betting expert Nick Martin.
- Continue reading for his Phillies vs. Braves Saturday game breakdown, plus a betting prediction.
Phillies vs. Braves Odds
The Phillies send Zack Wheeler to the mound on Saturday as they look for consecutive wins at Truist Park. Wheeler, who has been hit hard in three of his last four outings, owns a disappointing 4.11 ERA in 57 innings.
Wheeler faces off against the Braves' Charlie Morton, who has bounced back from a down 2022 with a steady start to his age-39 season. In 52 1/3 innings, Morton has pitched to a 3.61 ERA.
This series between NL East rivals is currently tied at a game apiece. Continue reading for my Phillies vs. Braves Saturday preview, plus betting pick.
After being a key factor in the Phillies' surprising push to the World Series last year, Wheeler has had an uneven start to the new campaign. His underlying numbers remain dominant, however, and he does seem to be close to the starter who put up a 2.82 ERA in 2022.
Wheeler has pitched to a 3.55 xERA and a 3.65 xFIP. His K/BB ratio remains elite, and his stuff is actually rating slightly better than it did a season ago.
The key reason Wheeler has underachieved is a LOB% of just 65.8, and a BABIP of .327 compared to .287 in 2022. Considering how little hard contact he is allowing, both of those marks should see considerable positive regression.
Perhaps StatCast is a little hard on a crafty veteran like Morton and misses some of the intricacies of his arsenal. Even still, it appears Morton is running with some favorable luck this season.
He has pitched to an xERA of 4.70, which in large part is due to an xSLG of .440. His strikeout % is down considerably compared to last season at 23.5% entering Saturday. His xFIP is also considerably higher at 4.11. It's a safe bet to say Morton should trend toward an ERA around 4.25 from this point forward.
The Braves will be in their lesser offensive split versus a righty in Wheeler. Atlanta owns a wRC+ of 97 and wOBA of .312 versus right-handers this season.
It's probably not logical to consider the Braves a below-average side versus righties despite those splits, but it is still important to note the massive disparity versus right-handed pitching compared to left-handed pitching.
Phillies vs. Braves Betting Pick
A number of factors set the Phillies up well as an underdog in this matchup.
Wheeler is due for better results moving forward — not surprising considering his prior history. At the other end of the spectrum, Morton appears due for negative regression.
Offensively, the Phillies have played far below potential. Everybody knows that, and it is likely still being baked into the betting numbers to an extent. The Phillies hold a considerable pitching edge, and I do not believe the disparity between these offenses is so wide that Philly should be an underdog.
+105 is a great number to bet the Phillies to win the first five innings.
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