Phillies vs Braves Same Game Parlay | Odds, Picks for MLB Sunday Night Baseball
Via Matthew Grimes Jr./Getty Images. Pictured: Matt Olson #28 of the Atlanta Braves walks off the field during the fourth inning during the game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Truist Park on May 25, 2023 in Atlanta, Georgia.
- The Braves host the Phillies on Sunday Night Baseball, and our MLB analyst has a three-leg same-game parlay.
- He's backing the Braves in this contest while playing two other props based on the starting pitching matchups.
- Find Nick Shlain's MLB same-game parlay picks and analysis for Phillies vs. Braves below.
Phillies vs. Braves Odds
-102 / -120
-102 / -120
This week's Sunday Night Baseball features a matchup between two teams that have had a lot of postseason success recently.
Last year, the Philadelphia Phillies won the National League pennant and advanced to the World Series for the first time since 2009. Two years ago, the Atlanta Braves won the World Series, and with so many key players still in the prime of their careers and under contract for years to come, they could just be at the beginning of a championship window.
The Braves are heavy favorites at home tonight, but will they get it done against the defending National League champions?
The Parlay (+406):
- Spencer Strider Over 8.5 Strikeouts
- Matt Olson 2+ Total Bases
- Braves -1.5
Same-Game Parlay – Phillies vs Braves
Spencer Strider Over 8.5 Strikeouts
Spencer Strider is one of the best pitchers in the majors and is the best strikeout pitcher in baseball. Strider enters this start with an incredible 41% Strikeout Rate on the season. The Phillies lineup strikes out quite a bit as Philadelphia's projected lineup has combined for a 23% Strikeout Rate against right-handed pitchers this season.
8.5 is a high number for strikeouts, but Strider has gone over that number in eight of his 10 starts this season, and this matchup sets up for him to go over once again tonight.
Matt Olson 2+ Total Bases
Right-hander Dylan Covey will get the start for Philadelphia in his first start of the season. Covey has a 3.00 ERA this year in nine innings out of the bullpen, but his career ERA is 6.45 in 273 and 1/3 innings, most of which came pitching for the Chicago White Sox.
So far this year, Covey has allowed a .318 ISO to left-handed hitters in a small sample of 22 plate appearances. In his career, he's allowed a .374 wOBA to left-handed hitters compared to just a .340 wOBA to right-handed hitters.
I think it's fair to say Covey has problem with left-handed hitters, and Matt Olson has a .326 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. All we need is a double or two singles for him to cover this leg of our same game parlay.
I like the Braves on the run line in this matchup. The total for this game is a little high at nine runs, and with the Braves having the clear advantage in starting pitching, Atlanta will score most of those runs. There's not much of a difference with these two bullpens as the Phillies have a 4.08 bullpen ERA, and the Braves have a 4.01 bullpen ERA.
Strider is likely to pitch deeper into this game than Covey anyway as Covey is making his first start of the year. Confidently take the Braves on the run line to close out the Sunday Night Baseball same game parlay.