Phillies vs Giants MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Noah Syndergaard, Philadelphia Lineup Have Distinct Advantage (Saturday, September 3)
Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Noah Syndergaard
- The Phillies are slight road favorites this afternoon against the Giants.
- Philadelphia sends Noah Syndergaard to the mound, while San Francisco will counter with Jakob Junis.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.
Phillies vs. Giants Odds
|Time||4:05 p.m. ET|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
Both Jakob Junis and Noah Syndergaard had a rough August. Junis comes into Saturday after posting a 7.13 ERA in 24 innings last month, while Syndergaard’s was 4.40 in 30 2/3 innings.
Junis has been in and out of the San Francisco Giants’ rotation this season and has not caught a groove. Meanwhile, Syndergaard has been underwhelming with a 3.98 ERA and 4.45 xERA. He has been lucky, but has not settled into his role on the Philadelphia Phillies yet.
The difference between these teams does not come down to either starter. The Phillies are a far better hitting team, particularly in the last month of baseball. Neither bullpen has had much success as of late, either, so expect Syndergaard to at least piece together an outing of five innings pitched while limiting hard contact. It is not easy to back Junis during such a poor stretch.
Giants' Lineup Not a Threat to Thor
Syndergaard ranks in the top-20% of the league in hard hit rate and average exit velocity. He also limits walks at only 5.8%. He will be facing a lineup with a team 84 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in the last month.
This team normally walks around 8% of the time with a righty on the mound but will not have those opportunities as much with Syndergaard starting this game.
The Giants only have two hitters, Austin Slater and Joc Pederson, above a .320 xwOBA over the last month as the rest of the lineup is struggling to put together quality plate appearances.
There are a few names like Austin Wynns, Wilmer Flores and Brandon Crawford who come into this game with a xwOBA a touch above .310, but this might not be enough to string together runs.
The Phillies bullpen, however, does have its rough spots. Since August 2, they have a collective 4.24 xFIP, ranking 22nd in the league. Syndergaard has gone at least five innings in every start on the Phillies, so they will likely need about four innings of work.
That said, they have seven available relievers and four have a sub-4.00 xFIP. They should have enough artillery on the back of Syndergaard to close the game out.
Phillies Should Slug Against Junis
Junis looks brutal at the moment. Unlike Syndergaard, Junis permits hard contact. He ranks in the 25th percentile in average exit velocity and 31st percentile in hard hit rate.
Outside of rarely walking anyone (4.7%), he does not have much going for him. The Phillies also rank sixth in average exit velocity and hard hit rate, so this does not look like a fair matchup.
The Phillies have seven bats over a .310 xwOBA against righties in the last month. Four of those bats are over .330: Rhys Hoskins, Nick Castellanos, Brandon Marsh and J.T. Realmuto. In addition, the Phils have six bats averaging at least 89 mph off the bat. Essentially every Philadelphia hitter can hit the ball hard, playing into Junis’ greatest weakness in August.
The Giants' bullpen has had some issues, as well. They have a bullpen xFIP of 3.92, but only two active arms are sub-4.00 now. This means that the middle relief will have a tough time with the Philly lineup.
The Phillies are the better team in this game, considering the pitching they will face and the lineup they put forth. San Francisco has slumped lately against right-handed pitching and Syndergaard can at least give a quality start in this game.
Take the Phillies at -125, and play them to -140. A team total over bet could be worth a look, too.
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies -126 | play to -140