Phillies vs. Mariners Odds, Pick & Preview: Betting Value on Game Total (May 10)
Matthew Stockman/Getty Images. Pictured: Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola.
- The Mariners are home underdogs on Tuesday against the Phillies.
- With both pitchers struggling to live up to expectations this year, is there value on one side or the total?
- Mike Ianniello previews the matchup and offers up his best bet.
Phillies vs. Mariners Odds
| Phillies Odds | -135 |
| Mariners Odds | +115 |
| Over/Under | 7 |
| Time | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
Both the Mariners and Phillies have lost three consecutive series entering this three-game set that starts Tuesday in Seattle. The hosts have slipped to third place in the AL West, while Philadelphia has fallen to fourth in the NL East.
Each team boasts a top-10 offense, along with its presumed ace pitcher, who are off to rocky starts. These sides haven’t met since 2017 and provide and exciting cross-country interleague series.
Philadelphia Phillies
After a down 2021 season, Aaron Nola has seemingly bounced back, despite the results not following. In six starts, he is 1-3 with a 3.38 ERA. However, his xERA is 2.61 and his xFIP sits at 2.55. Both rank in the top 20% of the league.
He has gotten a little bit of bad luck, as in two starts where he earned a no decision Nola went seven innings in each. One was a one-hit shutout and the other he allowed just one run. Nola’s fastball, curveball and sinker have all been great and are allowing a sub-.200 batting average.
Philly’s offense got even more loaded this offseason with the addition of Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos. The Phillies rank sixth in wOBA and ninth in wRC+ this season. Castellanos leads the team in hits, while Schwarber paces them in home runs.
A big improvement for Philadelphia has been via its defense. Last season, this team finished last in defensive runs saved. While the Phillies still aren’t at the top of the league, they have improved a bunch in that area this year.
Seattle Mariners
Reigning Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray has taken a step back in his first season in Seattle. He’s just 2-3 with a 4.38 ERA and 4.13 xFIP. He ranks in the bottom half of the league in xERA and xwOBA against. He has allowed at least three runs in three of his six starts, including the last two outings.
The most concerning thing about Ray, after a K/9 rate more than 11.0 in each of the last five seasons, is his strikeout rate has plummeted to 7.54 this season. His velocity and spin rate are way down and he ranks in the bottom 20% of average exit velocity.
Seattle did most of its damage in High Leverage Situations last year, leading to them coining the term “Fun Differential.” Well this season, they’ve been hitting in all situations. The Mariners currently sit sixth in wRC+
Shortstop J.P. Crawford has been unbelievable to start the year. He’s batting .340 and ranks fifth in wRC+ and seventh in wOBA. He has been out of the lineup, but is expected back for this game. Ty France has been terrific as well, but this team could definitely use Mitch Haniger’s power back in the lineup.
Phillies-Mariners Pick
Both pitchers haven’t quite lived up to expectations this season. Each team’s opening-day starter has a losing record, with ERAs north of 3.38 as well. They both rank in the bottom half of the league in average exit velocity.
The offenses for Seattle and Philadelphia rank in the top 10 in wRC+ this season. Both starting pitchers predominantly feature their fastball, but both lineups hammer fastballs. Philadelphia ranks eighth against four-seamers and the Mariners lead the league by a pretty decent margin.
Behind the starting pitchers, the two bullpens rank 20th in and 26th in bullpen ERA and neither team is exactly a guarantee to lock things down on the backend.
We are getting a pretty low total here due to the name recognition between the starting pitchers. However, neither has looked untouchable, so I'll side with the offenses.
That said, I’m backing the total clearing 6.5 runs at -120 or better and over 7 at -108 or better.
Pick: Over 6.5 (-120 or better) | Total Over 7 (-108 or better)
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