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Phillies vs. Padres MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Musgrove Set to Stymie Philadelphia (Thursday, June 23)

Phillies vs. Padres MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Musgrove Set to Stymie Philadelphia (Thursday, June 23) article feature image

Jamie Sabau/Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Musgrove

  • The Padres are home favorites in tonight's matchup against the Phillies.
  • Joe Musgrove takes the mound for San Diego, while Philadelphia will counter with Ranger Suarez.
  • Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.

Phillies vs. Padres Odds

Phillies Odds+145
Padres Odds-175
Over/Under7 (-120 / +100)
Time9:40 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

One of the hottest teams in baseball just a week ago, the Philadelphia Phillies, find themselves in search of a much-needed win here in San Diego against the Padres.

The test will be tough with Joe Musgrove on the bump for the home team, but is it one which Philadelphia may be able to pass? Let’s dig into this one.

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Phillies Need Bats to Come Back Around

Every good thing eventually comes to an end, and that’s what just happened to the Phillies’ insane run when they traveled to Texas. After winning 15 of 18, they were swept in a miniature two-game series, and now are suddenly staring down the barrel of a four-game losing streak.

Taking a step back and looking at the Phillies’ performance at the plate over the last week, it’s easy to see why things are crumbling. They’re down in 27th place in that span with a 74 wRC+ with just a .118 isolated power. They’re making enough contact and getting on base with a 10.9% walk rate and low 18.5% strikeout rate, but the contact simply hasn’t been of the highest quality.

Ranger Suarez hasn’t been of the highest quality, either. In what can only be considered a disappointing season to this point, the lefty has posted a 4.43 ERA in 65 innings with a 4.21 xERA a season after cruising through 106 innings with a 1.36 ERA.

Suarez’s strikeouts are down big-time from a 25.6% rate in 2021 to 18.8% this year, and his walk rate has climbed 2.2%. He’s been able to pitch to contact as well as he did last year, but the lack of swings and misses has taken a lot of the wind out of the lefty’s sails. He’s walked seven batters in his last two starts and just allowed three runs over 5 2/3 against the lowly Nationals.

Musgrove a Force For Padres

On the other side of this one, Musgrove has managed to maintain the high level we’ve seen over the last couple of years. He continues to use his slider more and more, and that’s certainly no surprise given the success he’s had with the pitch.

Hitters are just 10-for-79 against Musgrove’s slider and that’s helped bring the batting average against his fastball down to .261 from .319 a year ago.

All that has amounted to a very good season. Musgrove has put up a stupid 1.59 ERA in 12 starts, going 8-0 in the process. His 2.55 xERA is in the top 8% of the league, and his hard-hit rate is a tasty 35.4% with a great 26.3% strikeout rate. He’s allowed just three earned runs in his last five outings.

The Padres also have been incredible at the plate over the last week with a fourth-ranked 134 wRC+ and super-low 19.1% strikeout rate. They’re also importantly ninth in contact rate.

Phillies-Padres Pick

Contact is going to be hard to come by here for the Phillies, and the fact that they have made good contact at such a low rate is incredibly concerning here. Musgrove has truly been one of the best in the game this season, and Philadelphia’s struggles at the plate pre-date its three-game losing streak.

Suarez has been a nightmare for bettors this season, and while he hasn’t really blown up in any one start, this is going to be a really difficult challenge for him. I think the Padres are a bit mispriced here.

Pick: Padres ML (-150)

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