Phillies vs White Sox Pick, Game 1 Odds for Tuesday, April 18 | MLB Predictions Today
Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: Zack Wheeler.
- The Chicago White Sox host the Philadelphia Phillies in a doubleheader today, with Game 1 starting at 4:10 p.m. ET.
- It's a battle of strong right-handers in that one, as Chicago's Lance Lynn matches up with Philadelphia's Zack Wheeler.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including how to bet it.
Phillies vs. White Sox Odds (Game 1)
-104 / -118
|White Sox Odds|
-104 / -118
The Phillies were hoping to finally get some good vibes going after a slow start to the season, and while a split in Cincinnati seems like a disappointment, it did end with a bang in the form of a 14-3 victory. Now, the task ahead gets a bit tougher in the form of a road series against the White Sox.
Does the pitching matchup — Zack Wheeler vs. Lance Lynn — offer Philly any reprieve here, or will the bats need to pick this team up once again?
Let’s break down the best way to bet Phillies vs. White Sox (Game 1 of a doubleheader) in our preview below.
If it feels like you’ve seen this before with Zack Wheeler, that’s because you have. The righty opened up the 2022 season with an ERA above five runs before turning his campaign around in a big way and nearly replicating his stellar 2021. Once again, he’s struggled out of the gate in April, with a 4.02 ERA through three starts.
Wheeler’s always been something of a slow starter, posting a 4.37 ERA in 32 outings across March and April. It’s the time of the season that’s given him the most fits, so it really should come as no surprise that he struggled so mightily against the Rangers in his first outing and was on shaky ground against Cincinnati. Even with a six innings of one-run ball against the Marlins last time out, Wheeler still walked three.
Things, though, seem to be heading in the right direction for Wheeler, whose strikeout rate remains high at 26.5% and whose 2.90 xERA reflects the job he’s done at limiting quality contact. The walks are concerning, but again, his walk rate in March and April has been in double digits as well.
As for the Phillies offense, well, it’s certainly not the problem. They’re fourth in wRC+, and while they’re not walking like they did a year ago, they’re still top-10 in Isolated Power.
It remains to be seen if that will last though as Philly is 15th in barrels per plate appearance.
If you want to talk about slow starts, look no further than Lance Lynn.
The right-hander has been a disaster this season with a 7.31 ERA in three outings. But like Wheeler, it seems as though the cold spell could be coming to an end. The righty struck out 10 across six innings of three-run ball in his last outing in Minnesota — his first quality start of the season.
Lynn’s been bitten by the gopher ball. He’s allowed six with a high 11.4% barrel rate and 50% hard-hit rate. He’s been able to strike out 28.8% of the batters he’s faced, and while the walks have been an issue, he didn’t issue one free pass to the Twins.
The veteran right-hander was pretty solid last season with a 4.00 ERA and 3.62 xERA, and he downright special the three seasons before that. He also is coming off of a strong World Baseball Classic and surely has more great starts ahead of him, even at 35.
As for the White Sox offense, well, it’s been a bit of an adventure. They’re 18th in barrels per plate appearance and 14th with a 102 wRC+. They’re only walking at a 6.6% clip, which is crazy low, and while their strikeout rate isn’t too bad at 21.6%, they’re 13th in Isolated Power.
Chicago is perfectly average with plenty to improve upon.
Phillies vs. White Sox Betting Pick
We discussed how both pitchers are starting to round back into form, and the matchups here couldn’t be any better.
Lynn has been beaten by home runs this season, but though the Phillies rank 10th in ISO, their barrel rate suggests they’ve really just taken advantage of some hitter-friendly parks. Both pitchers have struggled with walks, and neither lineup has really been patient enough to reach via the free pass.
With that, I think we’ll see the pitchers’ duel that Zack Wheeler vs. Lance Lynn promises us. Take advantage of the slow starts on both sides of this matchup and grab the under.
In a July start between these two, we might see a total of seven runs.
Pick: Under 8 (-118)
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