MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Phillies vs. Yankees (Monday, August 3)
Photo credit: Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: Bryce Harper
Phillies vs. Yankees Odds, Picks
| Phillies odds | +250 [BET NOW] |
| Yankees odds | -300 [BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 9 (-122/+100) [BET NOW] |
| Time | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | YES |
Odds as of Monday morning and via FanDuel. Get up to a $500 risk-free bet at FanDuel today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.
After sweeping the Red Sox, the Yankees now look to build their lead in the AL East against the Phillies.
Philadelphia has been off for over a week after playing the Marlins, who had multiple players test positive for COVID-19. It'll be interesting to see how they will handle having a week off to begin the season.
Philadelphia Phillies
Projected Lineup (via FantasyLabs)
The Phillies have played only four games this season, but they have a wOBA of .367 and 133 wRC+ in those games. To be fair, those were against the Marlins, so take it with a grain of salt.
After adding Bryce Harper last season, the Phillies didn’t do much to their lineup over the offseason. Going up against Gerrit Cole will be a challenge, but they did pretty well against fastballs and sliders last season, which are Cole's main two pitches.
Phillies Projected Starter
Jake Arrieta, RHP
Projected Stats (ZIPS) (via Fangraphs)
Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)
Arrieta has taken a big step back since joining the Phillies. The reason is because his sinker is a lot less effective than it used to be.
During his breakout season in 2015, Arrieta was dominant with his sinker, allowing only a .191 BA and .236 wOBA to his opponents. Fast forward to 2019, and he allowed a .304 BA and .366 wOBA against his sinker. That said, his changeup and curveball were pretty effective in 2019 with a wOBA against below .275.
He’ll have to use those two pitches more in 2020 if he wants to get back to some semblance of his 2015 season.
New York Yankees
Projected Lineup (via FantasyLabs)
The Yankees offense has been good to start the season with a .340 wOBA and 121 wRC+. They've also been beating up on two of the worst pitching staffs in the league over the past week (Orioles and Red Sox), so keep that in mind.
New York’s lineup is loaded yet again this year, as the Yankees were able to keep their core together over the offseason. Arrieta will have his hands full on Monday.
Yankees Projected Starter
Gerrit Cole, RHP
Projected Stats (ZIPS) (via Fangraphs)
Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)
Gerrit Cole has been great to begin the season, allowing only four earned on five hits over 11.2 innings in his first two starts. He struck out 12 batters in those first two starts, mainly on his fastball.
Cole is obviously one of the best pitchers in baseball, and the reason is his amazing combination of velocity and control. He averages 97.1 mph on his fastball and can top out at over 100. In fact, his fastball rated out as the best in baseball last season.
Gerrit Cole, 100 mph Fastball on his 101st Pitch. 🔥🔥💯 pic.twitter.com/JMWIibnLoH
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 2, 2018
His curveball and slider are also some of the best off-speed pitches in the game, producing a whiff rate over 30% and holding opponents to under a .260 wOBA in 2019.
The Phillies are going to have their hands full against Cole and his stellar arsenal of pitches.
Bullpens
The Phillies bullpen will obviously be fully rested after not playing for over a week. The Yankees did have to use both Adam Ottavino and Zack Britton last night against the Red Sox, so they may use them only in desperate situations.
Projections and Pick
Based on my projections, there is value on the Phillies at +250 and over 9 runs. I'd bet the Phillies all the way down to +228 and the over all the way up to -115.
Picks: Phillies +250 & Over 9 (-110)
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