Yankees vs Phillies MLB Picks, Odds, Predictions on Tuesday, April 4
New York Yankees/Getty Images. Pictured: Domingo German
- The New York Yankees are home favorites against the Philadelphia Phillies on Tuesday night in the Bronx.
- The Phillies have struggled to start the season as they are currently winless, but is this a get-right spot for them against Domingo German?
- Jim Turvey breaks down the matchup and shares his expert MLB betting prediction below.
Phillies vs. Yankees Odds
-122 / +100
-122 / +100
The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Yankees face off on Tuesday evening in the Bronx in a battle between two Northeast teams with great expectations in 2023.
While we’re less than a week into the season, it has already been a depressing start for the Phillies. Their 0-4 record has been accompanied by injuries to key players throughout the spring and has left their fans a bit on tilt.
The Yankees, meanwhile, have been nice and steady to start the season as they are looking like the Bronx Bombers of old. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Gleyber Torres all have left the yard twice already.
Tuesday’s matchup features Matt Strahm on the bump for the Phillies against Domingo German for the Yankees, and there are several ways we can approach this game as bettors.
The Phillies pitching, as a whole, is carrying an ERA of 9.28 to start the season, which is easily the worst mark in baseball. Even for a four-game stretch, that’s a pretty ugly sight to behold. Of course, this will not last, and Tuesday could be a good day to get off the schneid.
Matt Strahm will make his Phillies debut, but he will only be going about three innings because he is still in the process of being stretched out into a full starter. The “bullpen game” has become a common staple in recent seasons, and it’s one that the sharp markets truly love.
As such, it’s not surprising to see a lot of sharp money coming in on both the Phillies and the under. Our Action Network experts, Sean Zerillo and Anthony Dabunndo, are also on the under and the Phillies moneyline, respectively.
While my own modeling didn’t find large edges on either side of the spread or total, given the sharp money and Action experts on the Phillies and the under, that would be my suggested lean if you are looking to play around in those markets.
For my personal suggested play, I’m looking at a Yankees player prop.
Here are the season-by-season K/9 Rates for Tuesday’s starter, Domingo German:
That’s what we call a heavy trend. German, who was once one of the Yankees’ top pitching prospect, has lost a lot of shine as he enters his sixth season at age 30, and a good part of that could be the shrinking Strikeout Rate.
German managed to get along alright with a 3.61 ERA last season, but his 4.44 FIP and 4.33 xFIP paint a better picture of what to expect this season.
Even without a couple key pieces, this is a strong Phillies lineup, and one that ranks around the middle of the pack in terms of Strikeout Rate against righties. German’s strikeout prop is at 4.5 but heavily juiced to the over. This is surprising given that he was 50-50 on either side of this prop last season, going over in seven starts but going under in his other seven.
Phillies vs. Yankees Betting Pick
Bettors can get +128 on the under for Domingo German’s 4.5 strikeouts prop at FanDuel comes with an implied odds of 43.9%–I have this just above 50%, so there is a fair amount of leeway. I would play to under 4.5 strikeouts at even money (+100).
If you are looking to be a side or total on this game, I am leaning towards both the Phillies moneyline and under, due to sharp money, as well as our other Action Network expert plays.
Pick: Domingo German Under 4.5 Strikeouts +128
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