MLB Odds, Pick, Prediction for Pirates vs Dodgers (July 3)

MLB Odds, Pick, Prediction for Pirates vs Dodgers (July 3) article feature image

Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images. Pictured: Mitch Keller.

Pirates vs Dodgers Odds

Monday, July 3
10:10 p.m. ET
Pirates Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-120 / +100
Dodgers Odds
MoneylineTotalRun Line
-120 / +100
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.
Check out our MLB Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate.

The Los Angeles Dodgers take on the Pittsburgh Pirates in Monday's MLB nightcap.

The Pirates turn to Mitch Keller, who has posted some stellar numbers in 2023. As for the Dodgers, they are going with right-hander Michael Grove after placing Clayton Kershaw on the injured list due to left shoulder soreness.

Let's dive into the odds and personnel to find a best bet for Pirates vs. Dodgers on Monday night.

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Pittsburgh Pirates

Don't look now, but the Pirates are heating up. This team ranks dead last in wRC+ over the last two weeks but ranks eighth in that category over the past seven days.

Carlos Santana is white hot, Henry Davis continues to hit the ball well and Josh Palacios is finally seeing the results that his incredible expected stats indicate he deserves.

This is a formidable side, posting a decent enough 22.4% strikeout rate over the last week and a beefy .189 ISO. Their .349 BABIP would certainly suggest that things will eventually take a downturn, but the power is legitimate, and the new additions to this offense have paid dividends.

As if it couldn't get any more promising, Bryan Reynolds is back with the club and will provide a huge boost to an already hot offense.

Mitch Keller will be the man to take the ball here for the Pirates, and after a couple of nightmare losses against the Brewers, they couldn't land on a better stopper.

The righty owns a 3.21 xERA for the season with a stellar 31.1% hard-hit rate. His strikeout rate is bordering on elite at 27.3%, and his expected batting average sits at a spicy .218.

Keller's expected slugging and strikeout rates were both a bit depressed in the month of June, but his xBA fell for a second straight month. His numbers are still above-average even with a slight decline.

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Los Angeles Dodgers

Michael Grove is up with the team to start in Clayton Kershaw's place.

The 26-year-old has been downright awful this season, proving even the Dodgers can fail to correct mistakes made by their pitching staff. He owns a 5.01 xERA with very average strikeout and walk numbers — and his .472 xSLG is unsightly.

He's pitched just 37 innings this season, so we should certainly take those numbers with a grain of salt. Plus, his bad starts did come against the Yankees, Phillies, Diamondbacks, White Sox and Rockies at Coors Field.

So, it's something of a mystery as to how Grove will fare here. He owns a 1.80 ERA with 14 strikeouts in 10 innings down in Triple-A this season and has pitched well against inferior competition.

Pirates vs Dodgers Betting Pick

The Pirates may be hitting the ball well right now, but their BABIP tells a story of a team that's having unsustainable success.

While I love some of the lesser-known players in this lineup and think the team's brimming with confidence right now, heading out to L.A. after a huge letdown against the Brewers has all the makings of a bad time.

I think Grove has actually been a bit unfortunate to draw some good offenses this season and should settle down against a team that will somewhat resemble one from Triple-A. He's had a good enough track record the last two seasons at Triple-A and in some big-league appearances this season to trust him.

I like the under here quite a bit with Keller shoving and the Pirates heading for a decline.

Pick: Under 8.5 (-102)

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