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Rangers vs. Mets MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back New York’s Bats Against Glenn Otto (Friday, July 1)

Rangers vs. Mets MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back New York’s Bats Against Glenn Otto (Friday, July 1) article feature image
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Rob Tringali/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Pete Alonso.

  • The Mets are home favorites on Friday as they look to get back in the win column against the Rangers.
  • The Rangers will start righty Glenn Otto while the Mets will counter with Chris Bassitt.
  • Nicholas Martin breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Editor’s Note: Chris Bassitt has been placed in the IL and David Peterson will start in his place tonight.

Rangers vs. Mets Odds

Rangers Odds +168
Mets Odds -200
Over/Under 8.5
Time 7:10 p.m. ET
TV Apple TV+
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The red-hot Braves continue to chip away at the Mets’ lead atop the NL East, and New York will be keen to snap it’s three-game losing streak Friday in what should be a very favorable matchup against the Rangers.

Texas will send Glenn Otto to the mound, who has pitched to an ERA of 5.31 in 42 and a third innings this season.

New York will start Chris Bassitt, who has pitched to an ERA of 4.02 in 2022 but has struggled of late.

Can the Mets break through with a big win as massive favorites on Friday?

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Will Otto and the Rangers Pull the Upset?

Otto’s lone rehab start with Triple-A Round Rock prior to a return from the Covid IL was far from encouraging, as the 26-year-old righty allowed six hits, two walks, and three earned runs in two and a third innings.

Otto’s return to the big-leagues on Sunday was an absolute disaster. He managed to get through just two innings while allowing six earned runs against the Nationals.

Otto has now allowed an OBP of .366 this season, which is the 10th-highest among starters who have pitched over 35 innings, led by an alarmingly high Walk Rate of 13.9%. His xwOBA of .404 suggests things could be even worse, and a matchup with a pesky, disciplined Mets lineup could certainly compound the biggest concerns with Otto’s game.

Offensively, the Rangers have stabilized after an abysmal start to the season and batted to a 106 wRC+ and .314 wOBA altogether in the month of June.

Yet Texas has struggled in particular against right-handed pitching, hitting to a wRC+ of just 91 with a .292 wOBA throughout the 2022 campaign, and the majority of the lineup has fared very poorly against Bassitt historically.

Mets Should Tee Off Against Righty Starter

Bassitt has been surprisingly steady all season long for New York and has managed quality starts in 10/14 outings with a strong xERA of 3.22.

He has been particularly dominant over his last three starts as he has allowed a WHIP of just 0.79 while averaging nine K/9 and posting improvement toward his expected marks.

Because Bassitt spent time in Oakland, he has a small sample of at bats with many of the players in the Rangers’ lineup, and he has historically fared very well against them.

The Mets have hit to the league’s 12th-best xBA of .260 yet own the league’s second-best mark with RISP at .273. They also hold the league’s fifth-highest BABIP at .301.

With that said, the Mets have been the fifth-most potent team offensively against right-handed pitching up to this point. They get a great matchup here against Otto and should field their top right-handed lineup.

Rangers-Mets Pick

Otto has been among the worst starters in baseball this season, and while the Mets do not generate a lot of hard contact at the plate, their scrappiness throughout the lineup should matchup well here, and we could see another big offensive output against Otto.

Bassitt has been in fine form of late, and a reasonable start could mean a strong early lead for New York before handing the game over to a solid bullpen.

I believe we should see New York snap its three-game slump with a comfortable win Friday, and I see value backing New York to cover the run line at -1.5 (+108) at BetRivers.

Pick: New York Mets -1.5 (+108) | Play to (+100)

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