The Baltimore Orioles host the Tampa Bay Rays on September 23, 2025. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled for 6:35 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on MASN2.
Read our Rays vs Orioles prediction and MLB pick below.
My Rays vs Orioles Prediction
- Rays vs Orioles picks: Orioles ML (-105, bet365 | Play to -115)
My Rays vs Orioles best bet is on Baltimore ML. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rays vs Orioles Odds
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 9 -105o / -115u | -115 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 9 -105o / -115u | -105 |
Rays vs Orioles Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Ryan Pepiot (TBR) | Stat | RHP Dean Kremer (BAL) |
|---|---|---|
| 11-11 | W-L | 10-10 |
| 1.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.3 |
| 3.77 / 4.00 | ERA /xERA | 4.39 / 4.00 |
| 4.41 / 4.08 | FIP / xFIP | 4.05 / 4.23 |
| 1.16 | WHIP | 1.26 |
| 2.7 | K-BB% | 3.1 |
| 38.1 | GB% | 40.2 |
| 109 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 96 | Location+ | 101 |
Sean Paul’s Rays vs Orioles Preview
Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview
The usage of Rays starter Ryan Pepiot is something to monitor.
The Rays have nothing to look forward to in 2025. Not that the Orioles do, but Pepiot missed a couple of weeks due to fatigue and threw just 49 pitches over a mediocre 1 2/3 innings in his last outing.
To put it another way, the Rays won't push Pepiot. The future is more important than the present, and Pepiot is a major piece of the future.
Pepiot is having a strong season, but not quite the breakout he seemed poised for after making a strong debut last year. He has a 3.77 ERA with a 4.00 xERA and a 4.41 FIP, while issuing 3.28 walks per nine and allowing 1.42 home runs per nine. The walks and home runs will hinder Pepiot from reaching his full potential.
Additionally, for this outing, the combination of walking and fatigue is an issue.
The Rays' offense is a two-man show. Young slugger Junior Caminero and veteran Yandy Diaz both have a wRC+ better than 145 in their past 24 games, but only one other hitter (Jake Mangum) has a mark higher than 100.
So, while the Rays have two studs, the rest of the lineup being mediocre gives the Rays a 100 wRC+ in those 24 games.
I also don't love the Rays' plate approach, as they walk just 7.3% of the time (24th) and strikeout 23.7% of the time (19th). They have some pretty clear offensive flaws and won't do much unless Caminero, Diaz, and Brandon Lowe get some big hits.
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview
Dean Kremer is coming off a very strange stretch.
He allowed seven runs in back-to-back starts in late August, then held the Dodgers to zero runs in three innings and the White Sox to two runs in 5 2/3 innings.
The Orioles hurler isn't great, but he's a serviceable arm. Through 29 outings, Kremer has a 4.39 ERA with a 4.00 xERA and 4.05 FIP. Kremer is a pretty heavy fly-ball pitcher, and sits in the 77th percentile among qualified pitchers in hard-hit rate allowed and 73rd percentile in average exit velocity allowed.
He needs to be careful with the home-run ball, especially since Camden Yards is the MLB ballpark with the second most home runs hit.
On the offensive end, Baltimore has gone off the deep end, ranking 25th in wRC+ since August 25th. Only the Angels have hit for a worse average than the Orioles (.214). They can make up for the lack of hits a bit by posting a 9.9% walk rate.
The Orioles could take advantage of someone like Pepiot, who walks too many guys. That'll absolutely need to happen if Baltimore can win this game, unless Gunnar Henderson starts hitting again.
Rays vs Orioles Prediction, Betting Analysis
I like Baltimore as a short dog here.
Between Pepiot likely being on a shorter pitch count and the Rays offense depending so much on three hitters, it gives Baltimore a slight edge in what's a pretty even matchup.
As strange as it sounds, the Orioles' offense being incapable of stringing hits together helps them here. Since they can't hit at all, they do what they can, and that's working counts.
Hitting Pepiot isn't easy, so causing problems on the bases and forcing Kevin Cash to get the bullpen involved earlier is ideal in backing the O's here.
Pick: Orioles -105 (-105, bet365 | Play to -115)
