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Red Sox vs. Orioles MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: How to Bet the Total in Baltimore (September 9)

Red Sox vs. Orioles MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: How to Bet the Total in Baltimore (September 9) article feature image
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Patrick Smith/Getty Images. Pictured: Starting pitcher Austin Voth #51 of the Baltimore Orioles.

Red Sox vs. Orioles Odds

Red Sox Odds +108
Orioles Odds -126
Over/Under 8.5 (-108 / -112)
Time 7:05 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Two teams searching for a new winning streak will clash this weekend in Baltimore in another American League East rivalry. The Red Sox have dropped three in a row and will look to a youngster for answers while the Orioles have also fallen on hard times and need a reclamation project to turn things around.

Could this be a sneaky-good pitching matchup? Does one man have an edge? Let’s run through the matchup.

Can Boston’s Brayan Bello Find Consistency?

The first part of this equation is Brayan Bello. So far, his major-league career has been something of a flop. He’s registered a 5.91 ERA after debuting to much fanfare, though there’s plenty of context needed here.

For starters, he just fired six shutout innings with five punchouts against the Rangers, allowing four baserunners in total. He also had excellent numbers all throughout the minors, including high strikeout numbers, which have yet to manifest in his short time in the bigs. How short, you may ask? Oh, just 32 innings — hardly a large enough sample to judge someone.

Bello has always had issues with walks so a 10.7% rate of putting runners on that way is certainly a bit of a concern, but his 4.09 xERA, .251 xBA and .360 xSLG certainly point to better days ahead.

As for this offense, it’s cooking with gas right now. Boston is third in wRC+ over the last two weeks and has walked at 8.9%. The one thing that’s gotten the Sox is strikeouts, which have ended 24.8% of their plate appearances.


Orioles Have Interesting Pitching Matchup

The Orioles are not as hot at the plate. They’re 23rd in wRC+ in the last 14 days and have struck out in 22.8% of plate appearances, which is still quite high. They’re hitting .218 with a low .168 ISO, which is the main reason they’ve lost four out of five.

Luckily for the Orioles, Austin Voth is pitching. All he’s done since the trade acquisition is dominate, putting up a 2.57 ERA in 28 August innings. September started out strong for the right-hander as well; while he did last just 3 1/3 innings against Oakland, he only allowed one run on six hits.

Voth is finding a way to pitch to contact without getting an inordinate amount of ground balls, which is pretty impressive. Against a Red Sox team ranked 17th in home run-to-fly ball ratio in the last week, that should continue to remain the case. Sure, the Red Sox are raking, but they’re still flying out a lot of the time.

Voth has yet to face the Red Sox, but if the matchup is any indication he should enjoy it.

Red Sox-Orioles Pick

The Red Sox’ inability to convert fly balls into homers, coupled with a high strikeout rate, should really make life easy on Voth. On the other hand, the Orioles have been so poor at the plate and Bello may really be finding his groove.

These are just two offenses which are tough to trust at the moment, and two teams that have been finding ways to lose. I think this should be a sneaky-good pitching matchup as I alluded to before and I’ll take a bite out of the under.

Pick: Under 8.5 (-112)

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