Rockies vs Diamondbacks Pick | MLB Odds, Predictions Tonight
Chris Coduto/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Rockies vs. Diamondbacks Odds
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -105 | 9 -115o / -105u | +194 |
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -114 | 9 -115o / -105u | -235 |
Here's everything you need to know about Rockies vs Diamondbacks on Friday, March 29 — including odds and a prediction.
After a vicious beatdown at the hands of the Arizona Diamondbacks on Friday, the Colorado Rockies will send newly acquired Cal Quantrill to the hill opposite Merrill Kelly to try and get the visitors into the win column.
Can we expect more of the same out of Arizona, or will Colorado repair its image after one of the worst showings you'll se all month?
Let's break down how to bet Rockies vs Diamondbacks on Friday.
On the surface, Quantrill is a reliable pitcher. He holds a 3.83 career ERA in just over 570 innings, he's struck out nearly seven per nine — which is nearly at the league average — and he's also just two years removed from an impressive 2022 season which saw him record a 3.38 ERA and win 15 games.
Beneath the surface, however, Quantrill is not exactly a pitcher I'd recommend putting your faith in. As a guy with a poor 17.7% career strikeout rate — sitting nearly five points below league average — you'd expect a pitcher who once had so much promise to have other ideas as to get hitters out.
Well, Quantrill has had a whale of a time in this department, pitching to a below-average .258 xBA in that aforementioned 2022 campaign and an alarmingly high .291 xBA last season in 99 2/3 innings before he was demoted in Cleveland.
What's even worse is that the higher rate of expected hits came along with even fewer strikeouts (Quantrill was nearly last with a 13.1% strikeout rate) and an influx of walks.
When it's all said and done, Quantrill's a guy with poor expected stats who has a very hard time getting strikeouts and has seemed to get even worse over the last two seasons. That shouldn't bode well for a pitcher in Colorado, and it's also certainly cause for concern that Quantrill managed to give up six home runs in just 15 1/3 innings this spring, finishing with a 5.28 ERA.
As for the offense, well, I think you all saw the box score on Thursday night. The Rockies managed just four hits as Ryan McMahon carried the load with a single and a double. Kris Bryant was hitless in two at-bats before being lifted for a pinch-hitter, exciting youngsters Ezequiel Tovar and Nolan Jones were 0-for-8 and Charlie Blackmon is even further past his prime.
There truly may be no hope here if those four can't get it going.
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The Diamondbacks, on the flip side, lit up lefty Kyle Freeland and finished their first game of the season with 16 runs on 18 hits. What's more, this all came without a hit from Corbin Carroll.
I wouldn't expect Arizona to be quite this sharp at the plate, at least until this series is over, considering their pretty poor numbers across the board a season ago. Yes, they made a storybook run to the World Series, but the playoffs are notoriously random in baseball and a team ranked 22nd in home runs hit and 18th in wRC+ suddenly found its power stroke for three weeks straight.
That's not to say the Diamondbacks won't be a competent — or even a good — offense in 2024. Carroll should only get better in his second season and he should still have plenty of support from Ketel Marte, Lourdes Gurriel, Jr. Christian Walker and Gabriel Moreno.
The question for me is about the complimentary pieces here, namely Eugenio Suarez, who lost a bit of his luster when he moved to a pitcher's park in Seattle and who will now have to fight against the humidor in Arizona.
Pitching-wise, though, there hasn't been much of a reason to worry about Arizona. The 35-year-old Merrill Kelly will take the bump on Friday after a second straight season of splendid results in the earned-run department, and while his walk rate did trend the wrong way along with his expected ERA, he found the highest strikeout rate of his career and should still be a league-average starter, at worst, judging by the expected numbers.
Rockies vs. Diamondbacks
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Rockies have long been a team which has struggled away from home, but as fate would have it they actually looked their best last season when putting the ball on the ground with a .262 average and .728 OPS on ground balls. It was the strikeouts that killed Colorado once again, but in an encouraging twist it punched out just six times in Thursday's loss.
While their many ground balls did not find any gaps, Zac Gallen is clearly a step above Kelly when it comes to converting ground balls to outs. We do know from Kelly's long history in the big leagues that he will pitch to contact and do so with a very middling xBA, which leads me to believe the Rockies should manage to score some runs here even after an embarrassing Opening Day display.
On the other hand, I have long been one to fade Quantrill and can't stress enough how bad he's been over the past two seasons even if his results last season look like something of a fluke. He simply cannot strike batters out even at the Triple-A level as he showed last year with the Guardians, and against a team with a ton of speed and the ability to rack up hits, I fear the worst for him.
That leads me to the Over here, a number I'd bet up to 10 runs.
Pick: Over 9 (-118)
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