The Pittsburgh Pirates host the San Diego Padres on May 3, 2025. First pitch from PNC Park is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on SDPA.
Read my Padres vs Pirates prediction and MLB player prop pick below.
My Padres vs Pirates Prediction
- Padres vs Pirates Picks: Randy Vasquez Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-145, DraftKings)
My Padres vs Pirates best bet is on Randy Vasquez's strikeout prop. Check our live MLB odds page to find the best odds.
Padres vs Pirates Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 9 -122o /+102u | -110 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -180 | 9 -122o / +102u | -110 |
Jim Turvey’s Padres vs Pirates Preview
San Diego Padres Player Prop: Fade Randy
Randy Vasquez hasn’t cleared this strikeout prop line in any game this year.
All of his metrics have dropped notably. Specifically, his strikeout rate is down from 14.6% for his career to a minuscule 8.2% through six 2025 starts.
The stuff under the hood is more important early in the season, but Vasquez’s underlying numbers also spell trouble. His velocity is down nearly two ticks (from 94.3 to 92.7 MPH on average). With that comes a drop in his Stuff+ rating (from 101 to 96), swinging-strike rate (from 7.3% to 5.4%), and chase rate (from 27.4% to 18.4%)>
Every sign is damning, and the Pirates aren’t a stellar matchup for your average MLB starter.
Our RotoGrinders projections make Randy’s fair strikeout prop line closer to 2.5 than 3.5, making the under a strong wager.
Pick: Randy Vasquez Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-145, DraftKings)
