The San Diego Padres host the St. Louis Cardinals on May 7, 2026. First pitch from Petco Park is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on ESPN.
The Padres are favored by -156 on the moneyline and by +141 on the run line (-1.5). The Cardinals are +129 on the moneyline and -171 on the run line (+1.5). The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Cardinals vs Padres prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Cardinals vs Padres Prediction
- Cardinals vs Padres Pick: Michael McGreevy Under 17.5 Outs (-113)
My Cardinals vs Padres best bet is on Michael McGreevy to record under 17.5 outs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cardinals vs Padres Odds
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -171 | 8 -103o / -117u | +129 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +141 | 8 -103o / -117u | -156 |
- Cardinals vs Padres moneyline: Cardinals +129, Padres -156
- Cardinals vs Padres over/under: 8 (-103o / -117u)
- Cardinals vs Padres spread: Cardinals +1.5 (-171), Padres -1.5 (+141)
Cardinals vs Padres Probable Pitchers
| RHP Michael McGreevy (SL) | Stat | RHP Griffin Canning (SD) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | W-L | 0-0 |
| 0.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.0 |
| 2.52 / 5.77 | ERA / xERA | 1.80 / 4.08 |
| 4.18 / 4.05 | FIP / xFIP | 4.74 / 3.28 |
| 10.9 | K-BB% | 21.2 |
| 43.4 | GB% | 55.6 |
| .209 | BABIP | .250 |
| 80 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 112 | Location+ | 95 |
Cardinals vs Padres MLB Betting Preview
St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview
Michael McGreevy will make the start for the Red Birds in San Diego. He brings a 2.52 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP into this game. He's allowed more than two earned runs in a start just twice this year, and he's been one of the big reasons that the Cardinals sit at 22-15 after entering the year as the projected last-place team in the division.
However, like a lot of things going with the Cardinals early on, this isn't sustainable for McGreevy. He has one of the lowest strikeout rates in the league (16%, ninth-lowest for qualified starters). His .209 BABIP is fourth-lowest in the league this year, which is so low I had to check it twice.
The lowest a pitcher can actually do in BABIP over a full season would seem to be about .240 (which is Bryan Woo's career BABIP), so McGreevy has a lot more hits and runs allowed in his future.
The one thing he has been decent at this year is dealing with right-handed hitters. He still has a poor 9.1% SwStr% against him, but for whatever reason, he's been able to set 26% of them down via the strikeout. Lefties, though, really have hit him very hard and have just a 12% K% against the guy.
The Cardinals are 10th in the league in runs per game. And that's about where they rank in OPS as well, so we can't say they've been super lucky offensively. Alec Burleson (.413x wOBA in May) and Jordan Walker (.489 xwOBA in May) have been particularly great for them this month.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview
On the Padres side, it's Griffin Canning making his second start of the year after beginning the year in AAA for the Padres. He had a decent time down there in AAA, posting a 3.60 ERA with a 26% K%, but a concerning 17% BB%. He went for just an 18:12 K:BB in 15 innings.
But the Padres need innings, so they'll give Canning some run. And he rewarded them in his first start, going five innings and giving up just one run on three hits with a 7:0 K:BB against the White Sox.
The Cardinals are a much better contact lineup than the White Sox. And Canning relies heavily on a curveball. He threw that uncle charlie 34% of the time his first start, but it was phenomenal with a 122 Stuff+, a 24% SwStr%, and a .165 xwOBA allowed.
The problem for Canning, and the reason he hasn't been able to stay in the Majors, is the lack of a fastball.
His four-seamer has a 92 Stuff+ and has already been hit hard several times in that one start. So the Cardinals will be sitting on the heater today.
Cardinals vs Padres Pick, Betting Analysis
I think Canning can be relied on for some strikeouts in a normal outing. He'll be wild, he'll get hard, but he's always had the ability to fool guys. So 3-4 strikeouts is a solid expectation.
The particular bats to target are the Padres lefties. San Diego righties are fine too, as McGreevy is a very hittable pitcher, no matter who you are, but the lefties see him particularly well.
Jackson Merrill looks very good in my matchups model, which looks at how hitters do against the type of pitch movement that they'll see from tonight's starter. Merrill has a .401 xwOBA and 12.9% Brl% when hitting balls off of guys most similar to McGreevy. Gavin Sheets is also a competent power lefty who will be in this lineup in a good matchup. Those are the two bats I'd pick if I'm looking for big games from San Diego.
So, my three betting angles for this one. I'm betting on:
- McGreevy regression
- San Diego lefty power
- Canning to get some whiffs
The lines on Canning's strikeouts are not advantageous. They're probably too high, actually, so I think we should scrap that idea. You aren't getting a good price on a hypothetical Canning over 3.5 strikeouts bet.
The main line I'm liking here:
Pick: Michael McGreevy Under 17.5 Outs (-113, DraftKings)
My projection model says that price should be -200, so we're getting a ton of EV on that. The bettors believe in McGreevy, and they should not.
I'd also take Jackson Merrill over 1.5 H+R+RBI (-137, DraftKings) or go to over 2.5 for +140. It's a feast matchup for him.
