Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis for that day’s games.
Ryan has that job for Sunday, August 9.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Red Sox ML
- Otto Lopez Over 1.5 HRR
- Brewers -1.5
- Brewers F5 -0.5
- Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 TB
- Jackson Chourio Home Run
- Jordan Walker Over 2.5 HRR
- CJ Abrams Over 1.5 HRR
- CJ Abrams Over 1.5 TB
- Rays vs Mariners NRFI
Reds vs Nationals Pick
The Nats will square off with the Reds on Sunday to conclude a three-game series at their home ballpark at Nationals Park.
Brady Singer will start for the Nats, and he’s struggled this season, running a 4.67 ERA and 1.43 WHIP across 113 innings. He relies heavily on a 91 MPH sinker (48% usage) and 82 MPH slider (30% usage) mix that hinges on tunneling and location. While that mix has been good in the past, it’s lost effectiveness this year.
I expect CJ Abrams to have a huge day at the plate against Singer.
Abrams is on a tear this season, ranking eighth among all players in home runs (28) and 24th in OPS (.912). Much of that damage has been done against right-handed pitchers (166 wRC+), while Singer has been demolished by Southpaws (.367 wOBA allowed).
Picks: CJ Abrams Over 1.5 HRR | CJ Abrams Over 1.5 TB
Athletics vs Red Sox Pick
The Red Sox will host the Athletics on Sunday afternoon in the last of a three-game set at Fenway Park in Boston.
Patrick Sandoval will start for Boston, while JT Ginn will take the mound for the A’s.
Across five appearances, Sandoval has posted a rock-solid 3.38 ERA, allowing just nine earned runs across 24 innings.
Ginn has been good too, running a 3.51 ERA and 1.21 WHIP across 115 innings.
But the Red Sox are too hot right now, having won 23 of their past 27 contests. I think they win this one, especially considering the A’s will be without top-end slugger Nick Kurtz (sprained thumb).
Pick: Red Sox ML
Angels vs Marlins Pick
The Angels and Marlins will duke it out on Sunday afternoon in the last of a three-game series at loanDepot Park in Miami. Grayson Rodriguez will start for the Halos, while Ryan Gusto will start for the Fish.
I don’t think very highly of either starting pitcher and expect plenty of offense in this matchup — thus, I’ll be looking into the player prop markets.
Rodriguez has allowed 41 earned runs across just 51 innings this season (7.24 ERA). He relies heavily on his four-seamer (53% usage), but it’s been ineffective on contact (.428 xwOBA allowed, 15% whiff rate).
I think Lopez matches up well against Rodriguez, given he’s a contact hitter who has slugged .615 against four-seam fastballs this season. His gap-to-gap hitting style and low-strikeout vulnerability should play well against the Angels’ righty.
Pick: Otto Lopez Over 1.5 HRR
Twins vs Brewers Pick
The Brewers will host the Twins on Sunday afternoon to conclude a three-game series at American Family Field in Milwaukee.
Jacob Misiorowski gets the start for Milwaukee in the middle of a Cy Young-worthy season, leading qualified starters in ERA (1.63), WHIP (0.73), and strikeouts (195).
The Twins will start Connor Prielipp in the middle of an up-and-down rookie season (4.75 ERA across 15 starts).
Ultimately, I expect the 72-44 Brewers to dominate this home game from start to finish behind Misiorowski.
I expect Jackson Chourio to play a big part in the win.
Prielipp relies heavily on his four-seam fastball (30% usage), but it’s hardly been any good (.402 xwOBA allowed). That’s a problem against Chourio, who feasts against fastballs (.582 SLG, .420 wOBA).
Prielipp made a start against Milwaukee back in May. Chourio smacked a 400-foot homer off Minnesota’s lefty in the game — Prielipp left a hanging changeup that was absolutely crushed.
I wouldn’t be surprised if history repeated itself on Sunday.
Picks: Brewers -1.5 | Brewers F5 -0.5 | Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 TB | Jackson Chourio Home Run
Rockies vs Cardinals Pick
The Cardinals will host the Rockies on Sunday afternoon in the last of a three-game interleague set at Busch Stadium. Michael Lorenzen will start for Colorado, while Michael McGreevy will start for St. Louis.
Lorenzen has been brutal this season, having allowed 83 earned runs across his 108 innings (6.94 ERA).
I want to fade Lorenzen, and I think Jordan Walker is a good candidate to back.
Lorenzen throws a six-pitch mix, but you’ll mostly see a changeup (20% usage), four-seam (19% usage), or sinker (19% usage).
Walker has crushed changeups this season (.522 SLG, .429 wOBA), while everyone has crushed Lorenzen’s fastball mix (.419 xwOBA allowed on four-seam, .389 xwOBA allowed on sinker).
Lorenzen is a soft-tossing righty with a brutal batted-ball profile, while Walker leads baseball in average bat speed (79 MPH). This is not a good matchup for the former.
Picks: Jordan Walker Over 2.5 HRR
Mariners vs Rays Pick
The Mariners will host the Rays on Sunday afternoon to conclude a three-game American League set at T-Mobile Park in Seattle.
Emerson Hancock will start for Seattle, while Ian Seymour will start for Tampa Bay.
Across 116 frames, Hancock is running a career-best 3.33 ERA and 1.07 WHIP this season — both marks rank among the top-20 qualified starting pitchers.
Meanwhile, Seymour has started to find his groove, as he’s recorded two quality starts across his past three outings. I expect the Southpaw to have another quality outing on Sunday against a Seattle lineup that features five left-handed hitters
I think both these guys shove early in the game, especially in the league’s most pitcher-friendly park.
Pick: NRFI
Minion's MLB Picks and Predictions for Sunday, August 9
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Red Sox ML
- Otto Lopez Over 1.5 HRR
- Brewers -1.5
- Brewers F5 -0.5
- Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 TB
- Jackson Chourio Home Run
- Jordan Walker Over 2.5 HRR
- CJ Abrams Over 1.5 HRR
- CJ Abrams Over 1.5 TB
- Rays vs Mariners NRFI
