Sunday MLB Player Props & Picks: Target These Two Pitchers
Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. Pictured: Carlos Rodon
- Our MLB props analyst has two picks for Sunday's MLB slate.
- He's targeting two pitchers, including one prop for Sunday Night Baseball.
- Check out his picks and analysis below.
Yesterday we had an unlucky day as Jurickson Profar seemed to be left out of the San Diego hit parade. Then the Tigers showed some discipline against Bruce Zimmerman; while he did pitch well, the strikeouts just were not there.
Today is a new day, and with it comes two more strikeout props. First, I’ve identified one starter whose stuff appears to be returning to Cy Young form. Lastly, we have a Sunday night special as one of the premier arms in the game will be in primetime, but this won’t be the start where he shines under the bright lights.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Robbie Ray Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-165)
|Mariners vs. Mets||Mets -140|
|First Pitch||1:40 p.m. ET|
|Best Line: Mariners +120||DraftKings|
The defending AL Cy Young Award winner has yet to regain his form in Seattle. We’ve seen a drastic drop in velocity as Robbie Ray’s fastball went from sitting at 94.8 MPH last season to 92.7 this year. However, in his last start against Philadelphia, we saw many more 94s and 95s on the radar gun. Perhaps the short spring impacted him more than others.
Regardless, Ray has adjusted his arsenal usage in response to the drop in velocity. He’s throwing his slider nearly 10 percent more than he did last season, and it has proven to be an effective weapon against both left and right-handed hitters. As his velocity appears to be returning, it will only become a more devastating pitch like it was last season when Ray had a 45.5 Whiff Rate on it.
The market has yet to identify the return of Ray’s velocity as this total is set around his average number of strikeouts as of two starts ago. However, the results are apparent as he dominated a potent Phillies lineup and punched out 10 of them over five-plus innings of work in his last start.
He is facing a Mets lineup that does put the ball in play, but Ray’s resurgent form will produce many more strikeouts going forward, and we should see him go over this total today.
Pick: Over 5.5 (-165)
Action Labs Grade: 8/10
Carlos Rodon Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-125)
|Giants vs. Cardinals||Giants -150|
|First Pitch||7:08 p.m. ET|
|Best Line: Giants -150||DraftKings|
It’s always a dangerous proposition to fade the man who is second in the majors in strikeouts per nine innings, but that is what we are ready to do here. Rodon has been unbelievable thus far as he’s done nothing but overpower hitters with his fastball-slider combination.
However, Rodon has not faced a team like the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals will enter this Sunday night matchup with the second-lowest Strikeout Rate in the majors.
They are also very adept at hitting fastball as they have seven batters in their lineup who have a positive Run Value against fastballs. The Cardinals will be seeing a lot of them as Rodon throws it 64 percent of the time.
Rodon is due for a down game, and the Cardinals are just the team to cause it, so let’s sweat out this under together.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-125)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10