The Tampa Bay Rays (49-43) and Detroit Tigers (59-34) will face off in the MLB this evening. First pitch from Comerica Park is scheduled for 5:10 p.m. ET. The game will broadcast live on FDSDET.
Detroit is a -150 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Tampa Bay is +125 to pull off the upset. The over/under is set at 8 total runs.
Continue below for my Rays vs Tigers predictions and MLB picks for Wednesday, July 9, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
Rays vs Tigers Prediction, Picks
- Rays vs Tigers pick: Rays Moneyline (+125)
My Tigers vs. Rays best bet is Tampa Bay moneyline, with the best line currently available at BetMGM. But as always, make sure to shop for the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rays vs Tigers Odds for Wednesday, July 9
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 8 -115 / -105 | +125 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 8 -115 / -105 | -150 |
- Rays vs Tigers run line: Rays +1.5 (-170), Tigers -1.5 (+150)
- Rays vs Tigers over/under: 8 total runs
- Rays vs Tigers moneyline: Tigers -150, Rays +125
- Rays vs Tigers best bet: Rays ML (+125)
Tampa Bay Rays vs Detroit Tigers MLB Preview
Tampa Bay Rays Betting Analysis
I’ve been targeting the Zack Littell regression for a solid two months, but it’s led to pretty poor results. He enters this outing with a 3.50 ERA, 4.56 xERA and 5.10 FIP.
He can’t evade the regression forever, but I don’t know that it comes in this matchup, as Comerica Park is a safe haven for pitchers.
According to Statcast Park Factor, Comerica Park ranks 17th in Park Factor, 16th in home runs and 24th in doubles.
The Rays' offense has taken a bit of a step back during its two games in Detroit, as the elite offense could only muster one run on Monday and stranded tons of runners on Tuesday.
Perhaps Wednesday will be the breakthrough day for Tampa Bay.
Since June 15, Tampa Bay ranks fourth with a 127 wRC+ and leads the MLB with a .293 average.
You could argue that some BABIP luck contributes to the high average. But even if the Rays dip to a .300 BABIP and .270 average, they’d still be one of the top offensive teams in the MLB.
Also, track the status of Brandon Lowe. He's a vital part of the Rays' offense and he missed the last two games. I like the Rays either way, but Lowe being in the lineup would help.
Very few teams have been able to keep the speedy Rays from running.
The Tigers have held the Rays to zero stolen base attempts in this series. They lead the league with 117 steals, a healthy margin ahead of the Cubs, who have 106 steals.
The Rays' offense functions best when they're stealing bases and have players in motion. That could change in the series finale.
Detroit Tigers Betting Analysis
Reese Olson will take the ball in his second start back from the injured list. Olson allowed six hits and one run through 4 1/3 innings against a lowly Guardians lineup.
Olson excels at generating swings and misses, striking out over a batter per inning, while posting a 91% whiff rate and 70% chase rate.
The problem Olson could encounter is that the Rays don't swing and miss a ton. That's where his poor batted-ball metrics could play a role. He ranks in the eighth percentile in average exit velocity and 13th in hard-hit rate. Plus, a lot of batted balls against Olson are grounders.
Olson has a very strong number, boasting a 2.89 ERA with a 3.59 xERA, 3.14 FIP and 3.69 xFIP.
The expected numbers are a minor cause for concern, but his ability to keep the home run in the park is a huge bonus. He posted an 0.56 HR/9 in 112 innings last year and 0.51 in 53 innings this year.
Olson will likely keep the Rays from going yard.
The advantage falls in Tampa Bay's favor there. The Tigers' defense will be forced into making quick decisions to throw out speedsters like Jose Caballero and Chandler Simpson.
Ignoring how good this Tigers lineup is would be foolish. I'm backing the Rays here because the price is good, and I also like their lineup. But the Tigers' bats deserve all the love it can get.
The Tigers have a 128 wRC+ since June 15, which puts them second only behind the Cubs. Similar to the Cubs, Detroit also hammers the ball and does big damage, ranking second with a .229 ISO and 38 home runs.
Rays vs Tigers Betting Predictions
I think the Rays are a strong play at +128 here. I expected the number to be close to even like the first two games were.
The Rays came into game one as a favorite, and the Tigers came in as -125 favorites in game two. Sure, the Rays had the pitching advantage in game one, but it wasn't a huge advantage. And I'd consider Ryan Pepiot and Jack Flaherty close to a wash in game two.
Of course, the Tigers winning both games one and two matters to the odds, and it gives us more value on the Rays. I'll gladly take them here, even with a slight pitching disadvantage.
Littell is almost a shoo-in to give up at least one homer, as he's done in all but five starts this year. Coincidentally, one of the five starts was against the Tigers.
As a Rays bettor, let's hope Littell can limit the damage to a solo shot. But if you're someone who enjoys long-shot home run bets, then picking one of the many hot Tigers bats to go yard could prove fortuitous.
Rays vs Tigers Best Bet
- Rays ML (+125)
Rays vs Tigers Betting Trends
For the latest on MLB injuries, be sure to check out our MLB Injury Report page.
