The Houston Astros host the Tampa Bay Rays on July 4, 2026. First pitch from Daikin Park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on RAYS.
The Rays are favored by -110 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Astros are -110 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Rays vs Astros prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Rays vs Astros Prediction
- Rays vs Astros Pick: Hunter Brown Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-150, bet365)
My Rays vs Astros best bet is a Hunter Brown prop. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rays vs Astros Odds
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 7 -120o / 100u | -110 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 7 -120o / 100u | -110 |
- Rays vs Astros moneyline: Rays -110, Astros -110
- Rays vs Astros over/under: 7 (-120o / -100u)
- Rays vs Astros spread: Rays -1.5 (+155), Astros +1.5 (-185)
Rays vs Astros Probable Pitchers
| Drew Rasmussen | Stat | Hunter Brown |
|---|---|---|
| 7-4 | W-L | 1-0 |
| 2.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.6 |
| 2.45 / 2.99 | ERA / xERA | 1.78 / 2.70 |
| 2.99 / 3.07 | FIP / xFIP | 3.39 / 3.62 |
| 21.9 | K-BB% | 17.9 |
| 47.5 | GB% | 50.8 |
| .236 | BABIP | .263 |
| 108 | Stuff+ | 104 |
| 109 | Location+ | 96 |
Rays vs Astros MLB Betting Preview
Astros ace Hunter Brown is set to make his fourth start since returning from injury, and his first three back have shown he has not missed a beat. Overall, he enters with a 1.78 ERA. The small sample size has him set to regress a bit, but we shouldn't see much of that in this outing.
Brown's key to success this afternoon is getting ahead early and often. We've seen him struggle with command a bit. A 12.3% walk rate and a 53.8% first-pitch strike rate are a bit concerning against a disciplined lineup like Tampa Bay's.
Although the Rays are not as formidable as they seem. Their lineup is top-heavy production-wise, as the trio of Yandy Diaz, Jonathan Aranda and the scorching-hot Junior Caminero have accounted for nearly all of the offense of late.
After them, the Rays' lineup drops off significantly in terms of threats, as the next-highest wRC+ against righties belongs to Richie Palacios. We should see Brown be aggressive against the bottom two-thirds of the lineup, as the Rays hold the fourth-highest ground-ball rate against right-handed pitching.
That will pair well with Brown's elite ability to generate soft contact, as he holds the lowest average exit velocity against and the lowest barrel rate allowed among all starting pitchers on today's slate.
Look for Brown to carefully navigate the top of the Rays' order while carving through the rest on his way to a quality start tonight.
Pick: Hunter Brown Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-150, bet365)
