MLB Odds & Picks for Tigers vs. Astros: An Early Bet to Make on Saturday

MLB Odds & Picks for Tigers vs. Astros: An Early Bet to Make on Saturday article feature image

Photo by Michael Starghill/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Alex Bregman #2 of the Houston Astros

  • The Tigers and Astros are set for the third game of their weekend series.
  • Houston took the first two games of the series, can Detroit bounce back on Saturday?
  • Nick Schlain shares his best bet below.

Tigers vs. Astros Odds

Tigers Odds+155
Astros Odds-190
Over/Under8 (-110 / -110)
Time4:05 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Houston Astros haven't had much trouble with the Detroit Tigers so far in this series, securing a pair of one-run victories on Thursday and Friday. Astros starting pitchers Jose Urquidy and Luis Garcia led the way for Houston over the past two days. Second baseman Jose Altuve set the tone by homering in the Astros first at-bat of the series on Thursday. Framber Valdez will matchup with Tigers starter Eduardo Rodriguez on Saturday afternoon, who will get the job done in this one?

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Detroit Tigers: Power Matches Up Well Against Lefties

The Tigers don't matchup well against the Astros in general, but if their lineup is ever going to make some noise it would likely be against a left-handed pitcher like Valdez. Since the start of last year, Robbie Grossman (.199), Javier Baez (.252) and Eric Haase (.260) each have ISOs above .199 against left-handed pitching. Jeimer Candelario (.162) and Jonathan School (.164) have ISOs above .160 against lefties since the start of last year and Spencer Torkelson has a .182 ISO against lefties this year. That's a decent amount of power against left-handed pitching. However, Valdez has allowed just a .109 ISO to right-handed hitters since the start of last year.

Houston Astros: Is a Strong Offensive Performance Coming?

The Astros are also facing a left-handed pitcher in Rodriguez and they have a lot of hitters who hit left-handed pitchers well, including Alex Bregman, who has a .255 career ISO against southpaws.

Yordan Alvarez (.220), Yuli Gurriel (.208), Kyle Tucker (.264) and Chas McCormick (.202) all have ISOs above .200 against left-handers since the start of last year.

On Thursday, the Astros couldn't solve Tigers lefty Tarik Skubal, who struck out nine Houston batters, but Rodriguez hasn't been a big strikeout pitcher this year. After striking out 27% of batters last season, Rodriguez is whiffing just 20% this year. There's plenty of season left for him to strike out more batters, but against a strong and disciplined Astros lineup on the road isn't the right spot to get right.

Tigers-Astros Pick

The Astros are big favorites here and for good reason. Winning any games is going to be a struggle for this Tigers team, let alone against a good Astros team on the road. The Tigers have a good bullpen, though, and if we believe the starting pitching matchup favors the Astros, then taking the first five inning moneyline at -190 at DraftKings Sportsbook makes more sense than the full game line.

Pick: Astros F5 -190

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